Phillyweather.net: The Delaware Valley's Weather Center

Saturday, November 07, 2009

Ida's Back To Tropical Storm Strength

Ida has reemerged over open water and has begun to reintensify, now back to a tropical storm. Ida has 45 mph winds this morning as it moves northward through the Caribbean Sea and towards the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Ida will strengthen a bit more as it is in a marginally favorable environment and it would not surprise me to see it get to 60-70 mph or so for top wind speed in the next 24-48 hours. While water temperatures are warm enough to support strengthening, Ida will become impacted by upper level winds that will prevent it from organizing further.

As Ida pulls northward into the Gulf of Mexico, it will begin to interact with a frontal boundary that will move southeast into the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Ida will continue to feel the impacts of wind shear but also a less hospitable oceanic heat environment. This will prevent Ida from becoming a stronger storm. It does not look like Ida will be sucked quickly northeastward along the front to enhance rains up here in our area. While Ida will be drawn towards the Gulf Coast, the front stalls out in the northern Gulf and there is a chance that Ida may stall out as the front will ultimately line up east-to-west, with high pressure quickly building in to the north of the front over the Ohio Valley to prevent Ida from advancing northward further.

The computer models do bring rain into Georgia and Florida from Ida, with the system likely transitioning into a frontal low as opposed to a tropical entity due to the presence of the cold front. It's possible that the future non-tropical Ida does move into the Southeast for a time and stall out as well...figuring out how far north Ida ultimately gets before stalling out is still up in the air. However, the potential for more heavy rains in the Southeast does seem legit from this system in the middle parts of next week.

Friday, November 06, 2009

November 7th and 8th, 2009 Forecast

After three consecutive weekends of varying degrees of crazy weather (from very cold and rainy three weekends ago to rain and warmth the last two), it'll be nice to have a weekend where the weather isn't a factor. Outside of a chilly start tomorrow morning, this weekend looks rather benign and almost beautiful by November standards.

Tonight: Clear, cold, and becoming calm. Temperatures will drop into the 20's outside of the city to the mid 30's in Center City Philadelphia.

Saturday: It will be sunny although some passing high clouds in the afternoon can't be ruled out as warmer air begins to move in aloft. Temperatures will bounce into the lower and middle 50's across the region with winds inching around to the west and southwest at 5-10 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear (although some high clouds may be sliding through) and not as cold. Low temperatures will bottom out in the 30's outside of the city to low 40's in Center City with light southwest winds.

Sunday: Milder and mostly sunny. It will be a very nice day! Highs generally in the low 60's with winds generally from the west at 5-10 mph.

Coming This Weekend: An update on Fall storm tracks and some musings on winter.

Thursday, November 05, 2009

EaglesCast

Aw...nothing like Dallas week in Philadelphia. The Cowboys are coming to town and hopefully the Eagles can win and take some of the sting off of the World Series loss by the Phillies. As much as the Phillies' loss hurts, it's hard to repeat as National League Champions. The last repeat National League Champion was Atlanta back in 1995 and 1996. Repeating in your league doesn't happen often in baseball...even the Yankees' string of American League Championships was broke after the 2001 season.

Weather for the Eagles-Cowboys game will be nearly ideal by November standards. Light winds, mostly clear skies, and very nice weather for football. Temperatures will be in the 50's during the game.

EaglesCast will be updated before every home game, providing you a forecast for the tailgate and the 4th quarter.

Ida Landfalls In Nicaragua

Tropical Storm Ida struck Nicaragua earlier today, destroying several dozen homes and bringing torrential rain to the Central America country.

Ida made it to hurricane status before landfall, sporting 75 mph winds for a time this morning as the center made landfall around 7 AM CT. Ida is slowly moving northwest through Nicaragua and will gradually turn northward into Honduras over the next day or two.

Computer model guidance suggests that Ida will drift back out into the Caribbean this weekend and possibly move northward into the Gulf of Mexico. This is based on the assumption that Ida can survive the trek over Central America, something that may not happen due to the slow movement of the storm and given the terrain over Central America.

Regardless, the storm or its remnant moisture may be pulled northward into the Gulf of Mexico early next week. If Ida still exists, it will likely be a weak system given the potential for an unfavorable upper level environment but also due to a less warm sea to traverse (this is November and water temperatures in the Gulf aren't what they are in August). If it is merely moisture (showers/storms/rain), we could see this moisture track through the Southeast or even up the East Coast in the middle portions of next week as a cold front works east on Tuesday into Wednesday. We're still a ways off and there's a lot of uncertainty given Ida's location over land but this is something that will be watched to see what happens.

November 6th, 2009 Forecast

Now: A disturbance in the mid atmosphere is working through the Northeast and has fired up showers across Pennsylvania. While temperatures this afternoon are in the mid 50's in Philadelphia, colder air lurks not far to the northwest. As a coastal storm fires up to our east and intensifies, winds will increase and pull down cooler air for tomorrow.

Tonight: Showers will continue into the evening hours. Over the higher elevations to our north and northwest some of those showers may mix with snow for a time this evening before precipitation ends. It will become breezy, with winds gusting to 30 mph late tonight. Low temperatures will drop into the 30's across the region, with wind chills below freezing overnight.

Friday: Breezy to start but winds will diminish. At least skies will be mostly sunny, which will temper the chill of the wind slightly. Highs will likely only reach the mid and upper 40's across the region.

Weekend Sneak Peek: Saturday will start cold with a frost or freeze across much of the region. Lows may be in the 20's in Allentown and even the northern suburbs tomorrow night. However, sunshine will help boost temperatures into the mid 50's on Friday. Sunday looks even warmer as high pressure anchors to the south of us and pulls milder winds from our southwest. Temperatures should exceed 60 on Sunday.