Looks Like A Little Rain For Monday
Thanks to a slowing down of the upcoming rainmaker for Monday thanks to high pressure holding in place a bit longer than originally anticipated, we should ultimately end up with a very nice November weekend around the Delaware Valley. Sunday may feature a bit more cloudiness during the afternoon but at this point we should remain dry through Sunday and into Monday.
Monday's system is getting a sheared out appearance in the computer models, coming at us a bit weaker and not as well organized as prior computer runs had it. However, with high pressure located to the north and northeast of us we could see some breezy conditions at times Monday and Monday night, especially along the coast. The high just east of Nova Scotia (see map below) is quite strong and will help create the east/northeast fetch...which could result in some minor tidal flooding at the Jersey Shore. Right now, it does not look like an Ida repeat as this storm system looks (right now) much weaker across the spectrum of computer models and the trend has been to keep this system weak as it moves off the East Coast and out to the Atlantic.
The models also are not optimistic with rainfall totals. The GFS is probably the most aggressive, spitting out between 1/4" and 3/4" across the region, with the EURO painting a bit less (weaker system and less energy than the GFS thinks will happen). The EURO is also quicker with the system departing the region, having it exit stage right late Monday night whereas the GFS wants to leave the energy lingering around into Tuesday.
Thanksgiving, which I'll detail more later this weekend, still looks like it could be a bit rainy as we have a pair of systems (southern energy combined with a low dipping southeast through the Lakes) trying to hook up for a stronger storm system. If the phase (hook up) takes place, we could see a decent storm system take shape that could pull colder air down than the cooler weather advertised for Friday and Saturday. Snow chances on the backside of this potential storm are limited more or less to the Poconos and Central Pennsylvania mountains (and places northeast of that) and snow chances look to be limited to late Thursday night into Friday if the stronger storm solution takes shape.
Monday's system is getting a sheared out appearance in the computer models, coming at us a bit weaker and not as well organized as prior computer runs had it. However, with high pressure located to the north and northeast of us we could see some breezy conditions at times Monday and Monday night, especially along the coast. The high just east of Nova Scotia (see map below) is quite strong and will help create the east/northeast fetch...which could result in some minor tidal flooding at the Jersey Shore. Right now, it does not look like an Ida repeat as this storm system looks (right now) much weaker across the spectrum of computer models and the trend has been to keep this system weak as it moves off the East Coast and out to the Atlantic.
The models also are not optimistic with rainfall totals. The GFS is probably the most aggressive, spitting out between 1/4" and 3/4" across the region, with the EURO painting a bit less (weaker system and less energy than the GFS thinks will happen). The EURO is also quicker with the system departing the region, having it exit stage right late Monday night whereas the GFS wants to leave the energy lingering around into Tuesday. Thanksgiving, which I'll detail more later this weekend, still looks like it could be a bit rainy as we have a pair of systems (southern energy combined with a low dipping southeast through the Lakes) trying to hook up for a stronger storm system. If the phase (hook up) takes place, we could see a decent storm system take shape that could pull colder air down than the cooler weather advertised for Friday and Saturday. Snow chances on the backside of this potential storm are limited more or less to the Poconos and Central Pennsylvania mountains (and places northeast of that) and snow chances look to be limited to late Thursday night into Friday if the stronger storm solution takes shape.
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