PM Rita Updated Discussion
I admit it. I underforecasted the intensity. I did not think that the hurricane could make it to Category 5. I thought it would get to 145 at the absolute worst, not 165 (with potential for it to strengthen further).
Well, so we admit we're wrong. However, I'm still sticking to an idea of a strong Category 3 at landfall, due to eyewall replacement cycles and less heat content in the Western Gulf (I talked about that earlier today in my morning discussion).
As for the landfall zones, there has been a very slight refinement of where Rita should make landfall. However, it is important to not focus on the zone of 'highest' risk. There will be coastal damage far to the right of where Rita makes landfall.
Low: Padre Island to Port Arthur
Mid: Corpus Christi to Galveston
High: Port O'Connor to Freeport
Strength: 125-130 mph, strong Category 3.
Dave Tolleris posts at Eastern US Weather about the concept that Rita could stall AFTER LANDFALL in Oklahoma or Eastern Texas. This would cause a 12 to 16 inch rainfall, at minimum, in those areas.
TWC Image (c) 2005, Landmark Communications
