Rita AM Update: Houston, We Have a Problem
The ring of fire (lightning) surrounding Rita as she traverses the Gulf of Mexico.
The forecast models have made a dramatic shift to the right last night and this morning in their forecasted thinking of Hurricane Rita. What looked like a 'stone cold' lock for a Central Texas landfall may be going out the window today. It appears that the ridge of high pressure to Rita's north, which was forecast to keep Rita on a westward track through today, may not be as strong as advertised.
I started noticing a significant wobble in Rita to the NW late yesterday afternoon but I thought it was only that -- a wobble, something that major hurricanes do all the time. I didn't think anything of it. However, looking at this satellite loop of the last couple of hours you will see that the wobble is a trend.
The trend may be Corpus Christi's friend right now, but it may not be Houston's.
Looking at the model guidance at 2 AM this morning, Houston is on the left edge of the guidance track. The NHC has put Galveston and Houston in the western eyewall at landfall.
One of the models, outlined in yellow, has Rita going up into Central Louisiana. This model performed badly in Katrina and is usually the one with the most bias in an eastward direction, so I tend to throw it out. However, looking at the satellite and the models it is necessary to adjust our thinking just a bit.
There is a touch of 'better' news out there (and I'm being sarcastic by saying that): Rita is beginning to weaken a touch. After being at 897 mb for most of the night, its pressure has come up to 902. Its appearance on satellite is also not as impressive as it was last night. This looks to be an eyewall replacement cycle and Rita should weaken a touch more before possible reintensifying or maintaining intensity later today. There is also the possibility of some upper level wind shear interacting with this storm later on today and tomorrow which may prevent Rita from stregthening further.
I want to stress to everyone that my forecasts are simply an idea of what I think will happen and should not be considered 'official' in any way. Follow the National Hurricane Center's forecast as a more official forecast of what will happen. With that said, here is my thinking as of this morning:
Low: Padre Island to Port Arthur
Mid: Corpus Christi to High Island
High: Port O'Connor to Galveston
Strength: 125-135, High 3, Low 4 at landfall
I'm adjusting my track back to what I had yesterday morning. I don't think this is a Louisiana landfall but if it does hit Port Arthur, the western 1/4th of Louisiana will get raked with hurricane force winds and a high storm surge. Hurricanes are not a point, they are an area so when ranges are put out there it's my idea of where I think the eye will cross. Impacts will be felt in a larger area than this.
Add-on reading:
The Oil Drum is talking about the impact of a Cat 3 or higher on the oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico:
The worst tracks are those which put landfall between Freeport and Sabine Pass Texas. There are 3 tracks that cross just offshore of the TX/LA border. Those 3 tracks all let the storm hit more rigs and platforms than the tracks that have landfall farther south. The big concentrations of platforms are in the West Cameron, High Island, Galveston, and Matagorda Island offshore areas. Mustang Island and North/South Padre Island offshore areas are less crowded with production. If you want to know what these areas look like and where they are geographically, try the MMS website. They instituted the block layout, naming and leasing stuff. Landfall just east of Houston's center will be right up refinery alley. Another bad spot is right up through Port Arthur and Beaumont - another big refining center. Not trying to slam anyone, but the best place in terms of damage [to the oil industry] would be between Corpus Christi and Brownsville - lots of low areas and farmland/ranches would flood, but minimal infrastructure damage. Next best is between Houston and Corpus Christi - again, fairly vacant of major infrastructure. Most of our big plants are in the stretch of coastline between Freeport and Sabine Pass...
