Rita PM Update: Up the Coast We Go

The current satellite loop is showing that Rita is starting to complete her eyewall replacement cycle. The storm is starting to look better on satellite and is starting to show the cold cloud tops around the whole of the center (the reds). The pressure has begun to drop again, from 915 earlier this afternoon to 914 at 2:45 PM this afternoon. You can see Rita getting her act back together on this water vapor imagery loop.

Model guidance has shifted to the right since yesterday, like we discussed this morning. The models are clustered between Galveston and Port Arthur and have been relatively consistent that landfall point for the last three model runs. The ridge of high pressure to the north of Rita is weakening and consequently Rita is getting pulled northward more than the forecasts indicated. As a result, Corpus Christi is nearly out of the woods for this storm. However, Freeport, Galveston, Port Arthur, and now Lake Charles/Cameron are not yet out of the woods. It's still early to say specifically where the eye will cross.

The 12z GFS has the center crossing between Port Arthur and High Island. The 18z and 0z, which both come out later today, will be more of an indicator of what might happen.

My zones shift but I'm keeping my intensity at landfall the same:

Low: Matagorda Island to Pecan Island, LA
Mid: Sargent, TX to Lake Charles, LA
High: Freeport to Sabine Pass (TX/LA Border)

Strength: 125-130 mph at landfall, a strong Category 3.

Update 7 PM:

The 18z models have been out for a while. The 0z will be out around 11 and I will update my discussion in the morning:



My thinking remains about the same, with a little more refinement.

Low: Port O'Connor, TX to Pecan Island, LA
Mid: Matagorda, TX to Lake Charles, LA
High: Freeport to Sabine Pass

Strength remains the same for landfall (125-130).

I would expect a slow intensifaction period overnight and a possible 900-905 mb peak at some point overnight. The storm is continuing to improve its presentation on satellite and it appears to look nearly as good as it did yesterday. It still is over the Gulf Loop Current and should be able to maintain Cat 4 or Cat 5 status for the next 12-18 hours.