Sunday AM Wilma Discussion
Hurricane Warnings UP For Florida Coast as Wilma Begins To Make Move
After Wilma decided to sit on the Yucutan coast for the better part of a day and partake in the destruction of Cancun, Cozumel, and Playa del Carmden, the massive storm is back on the move, a bit weaker, but still a formidable threat for Florida (as a hurricane) and now more likely for our area (as an extratropical storm or hurricane in transition).
Where are the models at this morning?
The 6z GFS takes Wilma between Fort Myers and Naples at 30 hours (near 8 AM Monday) and shoots it NE to 200 miles east of Hilton Head, SC by 2 AM Tuesday and by 2 PM Tuesday it is 100-150 miles SE of Cape Cod. This scenario throws rain and wind back into the Delaware Valley. With the onshore flow (NE Wind), I think coastal flooding is likely in the Jersey Shore.
The 0z GFDL takes Wilma on a path just south of the GFS regarding Florida, with landfall in the Everglades by noon Monday and a position just south of Lake Okeechobee by 2 PM Monday. By Tuesday at 2PM, the GFDL is pretty much in the same spot as the GFS model. Same scenario applies for Philadelphia but with more wind (the GFDL puts Wilma at 955mb by Tuesday PM and the GFS is sub 976)
The 0z NOGAPS is the slowest, putting the system E of Cape Cod on Tuesday night. Effects should be about the same in this scenario as in the GFS and GFDL.
The National Weather Service believes that between 1 and 1.5" of rain will fall with the system, with possibly more rain depending on how close the low gets. The most rain in their eyes (and in the Hyrdological Prediction Center's) falls closer to the coast.
As of this morning I see nothing in my thinking that causes me to change my forecast at all. Wilma does not appear to be organizing much this morning and still looks pretty rough -- 24 hours straight in Cancun will do that to even the most insane partier. I thought she would be a Category 2 or 3 coming off of the Yucutan and the 2 part verified with 100 mph winds. She has some potential to strengthen some today as she passes over the Gulf Loop Current but I think that strengthening will be zapped by increasing wind shear to her north that it will begin to deal with later today and Wilma increases in speed. So, essentially, what you see is what you get at landfall: Cat 2, 100 mph winds, between Marco Island and Sanibel, Florida.
After Wilma crosses Florida, she will race Northeast and then bear more North as she rides around the mid and upper level steering, putting her in a position east of Cape Cod by 150-200 miles by Tuesday afternoon. The center of the storm may very well be closer to the coast than the red line I outlined and since this is such a huge storm effects will be felt from Hatteras north after the Florida phase of this storm ends.
What happens for Philadelphia?
(1) About 3/4 of an inch of rain West, an inch in the city, as possibly up to 2" on the coast.
(2) Winds gusting to 25 west of Philadelphia, near 30 city and east. 40+ at the coast. Winds start picking up Monday evening and will continue to howl into Tuesday.
(3) Coastal flooding, beach erosion for the shore points.
Essentially a nor'easter without the snow. Areas in New England will get hammered with heavier rain and more wind than we will here in Philadelphia. Considering, however, we got some significant rains on Saturday, the additional rains in New Jersey will not help matters much.
