Thursday, November 24, 2005

Forecast Challenge Results

CONTEST GUIDELINES

2005-2006 Standings
OUTLET WINS PTS SNOW PTS TIME TOT
FOX 29 2 2 5 7
CBS 3 2 14 0 14
6 ABC 0 3 14 17
PHILA WX 0 16 2 18
NBC 10 0 14 14 28
NWS PHL 0 11 N/A 11


Wins are defined as best overall score in an event. Used for tiebreaking purposes.
Philadelphia Weather's (our) numbers do not count in the forecast challenge. They are merely a point of comparison.


First Event, November 24th-25th Clipper:

FORECAST USED -- AM
CBS3: Mix city N & W/After Midnight
6ABC: Rain/snow mix most of city/After Midnight
NBC10: Light Accumulations City/Around Midnight
FOX29: Rain city/Around Midnight
NWS PHL: Trace to 1"
ACTUAL: TRACE, Only Snow Observation at 1 AM

Trace rounds to 0 since it is less than 0.5" (whole numbers are used for the contest).

Points, First Event:
CBS3: 0
6ABC: 0
NBC10: 0
FOX29: 0
NWS PHL: 0


Second Event: Saturday Night Forecasts for December 4th, 2005 event

CBS3: Slushy Inch To Rain, 1-3 AM
6ABC: Coating to one inch, 1-4 AM
Nat'l Weather Service: About an inch, AFTER midnight
NBC10: 1-2 inches, 2-3 AM
FOX29: 1/4 - 1 1/4 inches, Mix to Rain, 2-4 AM
PHILA WX: 1", 2-4 AM
ACTUAL: 0.6", First Observation at 2 AM


0.6" will round up to 1.0" inches for this contest.

Points for second event:
CBS3: 0
6ABC: 0
NBC10: 0
FOX29: 0
NWS PHL: 0
PHILA WX: 0



Third Event: Monday AM Forecasts for December 5-6, 2005 event

CBS3: 2-4, Starts 4-7 PM
6ABC: 3-6, Starts by 4 PM
NBC10: 3-6, Starts Between 12-4
FOX29: 5-8, Starts between 2-3 PM
NWS: 5-7
PHILA WX: 2-4, Starts between 3-7 PM
ACTUAL: 4.0", First Snow Observation, 7 PM

Points for third event:
CBS3: 0 points
6ABC: 0 on snow, 6 points on timing (3 hours late, 2 points per hour over 'starts by')
NBC10: 0 on snow, 12 points on timing (3 hours late, 4 hour range)
FOX29: 2 on snow, 4 points on timing (4 hours late, 1 hour range)
NWS PHL: 2 on snow, no timing applies since they don't forecast when.
PHILA WX: 0 on snow, 0 on timing


Event #4, Thursday AM Forecasts for December 9th, 2005:

CBS3: 5-8 -- Starts 1-4
6ABC: 4-6 -- Starts 1-3
NBC10: 3-6 -- Starts 12-2
FOX29: 2-4 -- Starts 12-3 AM
NWS: 3-5
PHILA WX: 4-8 -- Starts 2-4 AM
ACTUAL: 2.2", First Snow Observation 3 AM

Points For Event #4:
CBS3: 6 for snow (3 inches off on a 3 inch range), 0 for timing
6ABC: 2 for snow (2 inches off, 2" range), 0 for timing
NBC10: 2 for snow (1 inch off, 3" range), 1 for timing (1 hour off)
FOX29: 0 points
NWS: 1 point for snow (1 inch off, 2" range)
PHILA WX: 8 on snow (2" off, 4" range), 0 on timing.


Event #5, Thursday AM Forecasts for December 15th-16th, 2005
CBS3: Starts 3-4 PM, Coating of snow.
6ABC: Starts 4-7 PM, Coating of snow.
NBC10: Starts 4-6 PM, Coating to an inch.
FOX29: Starts 4-6 PM, Coating to an inch.
NWS PHL: Little or no snow accumulation.
PHILA WX: Starts 2-5 PM, Coating of snow.

Actual: 0.2" of sleet/snow, first observation at 3 PM
0.2" becomes 0 for the event (less than 0.5)

Points for Event #5
CBS3: 0 on timing, 0 on snow.
6ABC: 2 on timing (1 hour off, 3 hour range), 0 on snow.
NBC10: 1 on timing (1 hour off, 2 hour range), 0 on snow.
FOX29: 1 on timing (1 hour off, 2 hour range), 0 on snow.
NWS PHL: 0 on snow.
PHILA WX: 0 on timing, 0 on snow.


Event #6: Friday PM Calls for Event of January 14th-15th, 2006:

(Since very few TV outlets used a timetable for changeover, no timing criteria was used)

CBS3: Few Snow Showers Possible, No Accumulations
6ABC: Coating to 1"
NBC10: Snow/Flurries On End, No Accumulations
FOX29: Dusting to 1"
NWS PHL: Coating to 1"
PHILA WX: Coating

Actual: 0.4" of snow, rounded to 0 for event (less than one half inch).

Points for event #6:

CBS3: 0
6ABC: 0
NBC10: 0
FOX29: 0
NWS: 0
PHILA WX: 0




Event #7: Friday PM Forecasts for February 11-12 Event


FORECASTER TIMING AMOUNTS FOR PHL
National Wx Service N/A 5-8"
CBS 3 3-6 PM 6-10"
6 ABC 6-9 PM 6-12"
NBC 10 2-5 PM 5-10"
FOX 29 3-5 PM 9-14"
Philadelphia Weather 4-7 PM 6-10"
ACTUAL 3 PM 12"


Points, Event #7


FORECASTER TIMING
National Wx Service N/A
CBS 3 0
6 ABC 6 (3 hrs. off, 3 hr. range)
NBC 10 0
FOX 29 0
PHILA WX 2 (1 hour off, 3 hr. range)

FORECASTER AMOUNTS FOR PHL TOTAL
National Wx Service 8 (4" off, 3" range) 8
CBS 3 8 (2" off, 4" range) 8
6 ABC 0 6
NBC 10 12 (2" off, 5" range) 12
FOX 29 0 0
PHILA WX 8 (2" off, 4" range) 10





Event #8, Wednesday PM Calls for Thursday, March 2nd Event


FORECASTER TIMING AMOUNTS FOR PHL
National Wx Service N/A Coating - 1"
CBS 3 6-9 AM 0-1"
6 ABC 6-8 AM 1-2"
NBC 10 7-9 AM Some Ice
FOX 29 6-9 AM Coating - 1"
Philadelphia Weather 4-7 AM 0-2"
ACTUAL 7 AM 0"


Points, Event #8

FORECASTER TIMING
National Wx Service N/A
CBS 3 0
6 ABC 0
NBC 10 0
FOX 29 0
PHILA WX 0

FORECASTER AMOUNTS FOR PHL TOTAL
National Wx Service 0 0
CBS 3 0 0
6 ABC 1 (1" off, 1" range) 1
NBC 10 0 0
FOX 29 0 0
PHILA WX 0 0