Friday, November 18, 2005

Storm Possible Early Next Week -- Tropical Connection?

We discussed in our discussion yesterday the idea of a coastal low developing in the early part of next week. The models continue to show the development of a low off of the Carolinas in the three to four day time-frame (Monday into Tuesday).

Part of this development may have a tropical connection to it. The remnants of Tropical Depression 27 have been interacting with an area of low pressure off of the Honduras Coast. The Natioal Hurricane Center stated the following earlier Friday about the developing system.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN... IN COMBINATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN HONDURAS COAST... ARE PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASED AND BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN HONDURAS COAST... AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY ACROSS THIS AREA. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS COMPLEX AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REPORTS FROM NEARBY NOAA BUOYS 42056 AND 42057 INDICATE WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM-FORCE HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN BRIEF HEAVY SQUALLS. EVEN IF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT OCCUR... HEAVY RAINS CAUSING
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OF HONDURAS... BELIZE... THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... WESTERN CUBA... AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.


Look at the left graphic in the GFDL model maps above. The system appears to shoot energy up into a developing low off of the Carolinas. This energy would be transported along a high-speed jet stream across the Southern US and could be the tropical connection to a major east coast storm in the four to five day range (which would put us from Tuesday to Wednesday AM). The top map below is the upper level 200 mb GFS at 84 hours -- showing the fast plume of wind that could transport some 'juice' from our tropical low into this developing storm. Bottom map shows the connection on the GFS (see the moisture plume down INTO Cuba -- the GFS is also picking up on the connection but can't see it in the same fashion the GFDL does (the GFDL being a tropical storm model).

This is something that definitely needs to be watched -- closely. The GFS has been rather consistent in cranking up a big storm but has been waffling between inland and out to sea (as it will for a while this far out). The 0z NOGAPS is producing a faster solution (see below) and places the storm further up the coast by Tuesday AM than the GFS.The EURO on Tuesday night has the low up over SE Canada.
With that said, there's a ton on the table to suggest a storm will impact the East Coast. The key is in timing and in location of the low when it comes up the coast.

I will put another post up Saturday AM to discuss more on this storm.