Monday, December 05, 2005

Event #3 Storm Forecast Calls

Calls for Event #3, Monday-Tuesday December 5-6, 2005


For the Forecast Challenge, Philadelphia (City) forecasts used.



CBS3: 2-4 City/I-95 Corridor, 3-6 S Jersey/DE, Starts 4-7 PM Philadelphia
6ABC: 3-6 City/S & E, 1-3 N & W, Starts by 4 PM Philadelphia
NBC10: 3-6 City/S & E, Less N & W, Starts Between 12-4
FOX29: 5-8 City/I-95 Corridor, 2-5 N & W, 8-11 S Jersey/DE, Starts between 2-3 PM Philadelphia
NWS: 5-7 City/Delaware County, 4-6 N & W, 5-8 S Jersey/DE


My call: 1-2 North, 2-4 City/Delco, 4-7 S Jersey/DE, Starts between 3-7 PM Philadelphia




UPDATE, 1:15 PM...

Will the Eight Ball Be Right?



With all the hype surrounding this storm, yet very little more than 3 snowflakes as of 1 PM, one has to wonder if the Eight-Ball is right.

Philadelphia Weekly's Blog shows a nice impression of boot in snow. For some of you far N & W, you won't see this much snow outside. It could be a major bust developing for Philadelphia weather forecasters over at FOX29 and the National Weather Service. Even my 2-4" call is looking a little shaky at this point.

We'll update again later this evening...snow or no.


Update #2, 3 PM

National Weather Service cuts down totals:

"WE DID NOT WANT TO TOTALLY JUMP SHIP ON THIS EVENT JUST YET AS IT IS JUST GETTING UNDERWAY, HOWEVER WE WILL BE LOWERING TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE BOARD."

If you see snow on the radar in your area but it's not snowing, that's called VIRGA. Not to be confused with viagra or virgo, but "virga is any form or precipitation that doesn’t reach the ground. There could be rain virga or snow virga. But in either case, the precipitation evaporates somewhere on the journey from clouds toward earth."

Now you can't say you didn't learn something today...


Update #3, 4PM

Time for the tap-dancing by the pro mets....

CBS3 holds firm to the snow amounts, but trends down N & W....which sounds reasonable. 2-4" has the best (and only) chances of verifying.

NBC10 shows tons of virga...and says 'it's not that much of a storm.' No snow for the morning rush tomorrow (but the morning rush will still be awful, of course)...it's so bad that Hurricane is using his 'trusty' category scale.

Philadelphia and the I-95 corridor is a Category 2, N & W is Cat 1, and S & E is Cat 3...and does anyone know what the heck those categories mean (yet he's saying areas where there's 1-3 are Category 2, what's that about)? Also, wasn't NBC10 the same outlet that named storms back in the day? Would this be Austin or Beatrice or Claude? I lost track...


Update, 4:30 PM
Roll out the stock photo of snow...don't forget that you can slide in it. Seems like every year someone forgets that one.
When the snow flies, the reporters flock to PennDOT's garages. I still need to get a still image of Nick Martino though.
The courtesy live remote in South Jersey. Still no snow.
We got snow on the board! Avalon's got a little on the beach there!

The wait is the hardest part -- Tom Petty

Graphics (c) 2005, NBC10, CBS3, 6ABC.



Update, 6 PM
Still No Snow At The Airport
It's snowing though at my house out in Upper Montco.


Update, 7 PM
First Light Snow Observation at PHL
We're finally on the board. Kudos to CBS3 for nailing the back end of the time frame.


Update, 9 PM
Snow at the game
Go Iggles...and enjoy the snow at the Linc.