Friday, December 09, 2005

Event #4 Verification/Final Amount



Well, that @#$$@^@ sleet line crossed the river. I was so so close to nailing this storm in the Delaware Valley, but that sleet line killed me.

Here are some storm totals from the NWS:


********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
(INCHES) MEASUREMENT


DELAWARE

...NEW CASTLE COUNTY...
PIKE CREEK 3.2 720 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
WILMINGTON 2.6 700 AM 12/9 AIRPORT

NEW JERSEY

...BURLINGTON COUNTY...
CHESTERFIELD 2.5 921 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
MOUNT HOLLY NWS 1.0 700 AM 12/9 NWS OFFICE

...CAMDEN COUNTY...
PENNSAUKEN 2.0 700 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
LINDENWOLD 1.5 900 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
SOMERDALE 1.0 815 AM 12/9 SPOTTER

...GLOUCESTER COUNTY...
GLASSBORO 2.0 900 AM 12/9 SPOTTER

...HUNTERDON COUNTY...
WHITEHOUSE 8.3 815 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
FLEMINGTON 8.0 800 AM 12/9 COOP FLMN4
WERTSVILLE 5.2 730 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
RIEGELSVILLE 4.5 831 AM 12/9 COOP RGLN4

...MERCER COUNTY...
EWING 4.8 745 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
HIGHTSTOWN 4.1 800 AM 12/9 COOP HGTN4
HAMILTON SQUARE 3.0 845 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
PENNINGTON 1.0 500 AM 12/9 SPOTTER

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
EAST BRUNSWICK 4.0 833 AM 12/9 SPOTTER

...MORRIS COUNTY...
BUTLER 8.0 920 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
MARCELLA 8.0 845 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
SUCCASUNNA 7.8 901 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
CHATHAM 6.0 915 AM 12/9 SPOTTER

...SOMERSET COUNTY...
HILLSBOROUGH 7.2 901 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
SOMERSET 6.0 914 AM 12/9 SPOTTER

...SUSSEX COUNTY...
ANDOVER 10.3 917 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
NEWTON 10.0 915 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
HIGHLAND LAKES 8.2 815 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
WANTAGE 8.0 806 AM 12/9 SPOTTER

...WARREN COUNTY...
BLAIRSTOWN 10.0 900 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
STEWARTSVILLE 7.5 800 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
PHILLIPSBURG 5.0 847 AM 12/9 SPOTTER

PENNSYLVANIA

...BERKS COUNTY...
SINKING SPRING 8.2 831 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
BECHTELSVILLE 8.0 745 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
HAMBURG 7.9 800 AM 12/9 COOP HBGP1
BOYERTOWN 7.8 815 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
BOYERTOWN 7.5 725 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
MORGANTOWN 7.2 822 AM 12/9 SPOTTER

...BUCKS COUNTY...
NEW HOPE 8.0 907 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
SPRINGTOWN 6.7 700 AM 12/9 COOP SPRP1
PERKASIE 6.5 700 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
NEWTOWN 4.5 850 AM 12/9 SPOTTER

...CARBON COUNTY...
BELTZVILLE LAKE 10.2 800 AM 12/9 COOP PRYP1

...CHESTER COUNTY...
COATESVILLE 9.0 825 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
DOWNINGTOWN 9.0 906 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
EAST NANTMEAL 7.8 815 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
CHESTER COUNTY 7.5 927 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
GLENMOORE 7.5 817 AM 12/9 COOP GNMP1
DOWNINGTOWN 7.1 730 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
CHESTER SPRINGS 7.0 916 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
HONEY BROOK 7.0 730 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
KIMBERTON 7.0 800 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
WEST CHESTER 6.0 923 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
COATESVILLE DAM 4.0 610 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
OXFORD 3.5 920 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
VALLEY FORGE 3.0 605 AM 12/9 COOP VNPP1

...DELAWARE COUNTY...
VILLANOVA 6.0 853 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
CLIFTON HEIGHTS 3.7 815 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
HAVERTOWN 3.5 815 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
LIMA 3.0 620 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
SOUTH CHESTER 2.0 840 AM 12/9 SPOTTER

...LEHIGH COUNTY...
ALLENTOWN 8.5 835 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
ALLENTOWN 5.6 700 AM 12/9 AIRPORT

...MONROE COUNTY...
EAST STROUDSBURG 12.0 830 AM 12/9 COOP ESTP1
TOBYHANNA 11.3 830 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
SAYLORSBURG 11.0 851 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
POCONO SUMMIT 10.0 830 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
TANNERSVILLE 7.5 700 AM 12/9 SPOTTER

...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
BECHTELSVILLE 8.0 830 AM 12/9 COOP BTVP1
ROYERSFORD 7.6 822 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
HARLEYSVILLE 7.2 825 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
PALM 7.0 800 AM 12/9 COOP PLMP1
BLUE BELL 6.2 916 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
NORTH WALES 6.1 900 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
WYNNEWOOD 4.0 700 AM 12/9 SPOTTER

...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY...
EASTON 9.0 815 AM 12/9 SPOTTER

...PHILADELPHIA COUNTY...
HOLMESBURG 3.0 920 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
PHILADELPHIA 2.2 700 AM 12/9 AIRPORT

***********************STORM TOTAL ICE***********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
ICE OF
(INCHES) MEASUREMENT


NEW JERSEY

...CUMBERLAND COUNTY...
MILLVILLE 0.40 730 AM 12/9 SPOTTER 1/4"-3/8" COUNTYWIDE



My prediction verified very well in the suburbs on the PA side of the river and verified well in South Jersey where the mix was in play. Get burned north and west of the 222 corridor in East Central PA (from the Lehigh Valley S & W through Reading and Lancaster) -- 6-10" of snow was common in those areas.


As for the meteorologists on TV, only ONE station got within the forecasted range they had out on Thursday AM, which were the calls used for this forecast. That was FOX 29, which called for 2-4 along the I-95 corridor. Rob Guarino, however, did up the ante to 5-8 for Philadelphia but we were using Thursday AM's forecasts, which ended up actually being the correct ones for FOX. Just goes to show that nowcasting (forecasting off of radars and current observations) does not ALWAYS work.
The first snow observation was at 3 AM, which everyone but NBC10 got correctly. 10 missed by 1 hour.

Again, this was an incredibly tough forecast and I know that many just along and over the river from Philadelphia did not get as much snow as advertised. The ice line inched just far enough west, which was a concern I had when forecasting this storm, to screw things up accumulation wise for Philadelphia. If that line had been about 8 miles east, the airport would have ended up with about 6-7" of snow.

UPDATED STANDINGS:

2005-2006 Standings
OUTLET WINS PTS SNOW PTS TIME TOT
CBS 3 1 6 0 6
FOX 29 1 2 4 6
6 ABC 0 2 6 8
NBC 10 0 2 13 15
NWS PHL 0 3 N/A 3


RECAP:

CBS3: 5-8 -- Starts 1-4
6ABC: 4-6 -- Starts 1-3
NBC10: 3-6 -- Starts 12-2
FOX29: 2-4 -- Starts 12-3 AM
NWS: 3-5
PHILA WX: 4-8 -- Starts 2-4 AM
ACTUAL: 2.2", First Snow Observation 3 AM

Points For Event #4:
CBS3: 6 for snow (3 inches off on a 3 inch range), 0 for timing
6ABC: 2 for snow (2 inches off, 2" range), 0 for timing
NBC10: 2 for snow (1 inch off, 3" range), 1 for timing (1 hour off)
FOX29: 0 points
NWS: 1 point for snow (1 inch off, 2" range)