Friday, December 09, 2005

Happy Happy Weekend

As I take a day off Saturday...well, day off from my blog, I'll be at events in Philadelphia and Norristown for my real job and then attending a holiday party, hence the stock photo of the office holiday party...let's discuss the upcoming weather picture for Philadelphia and vicinity for the coming days.

BOTTOM LINE: Expect below normal temperatures and continued cold. Hurricane Schwartz's December prediction of 1 Degree above normal for December looks like it's not going to verify unless we get a blowtorch in the area for the second half of the month. For the first eight days of December, temperatures here are a good 8 degrees below normal. The average high in our area is around 45. With a good snowpack in our area, 45 is a pipedream for the next few days.

What will be going on in our weather world is that we will be under the influcence of a trough of low pressure. The jet is to our south and east and will continue to remain that way until possibly Wednesday or Thursday. Given that we are on the cold side of the jet and given the snowpack, I'm expecting some cold nights in Philadelphia starting tonight and continuing through the next five days. Highs in Philadelphia will likely fall short of forecast for a couple of days until the models get a handle of the snowpack and start to digest that within their data. I would not be surprised to see the weekend feature highs in the 20's for Allentown, Reading and the N & W burbs. Philadelphia and South Jersey should be able to squeak into the 30's with sunshine on Saturday and Sunday -- but not by much.

Another feature within the next few days will be occasional clippers to our north. We may have a couple of cloudy to mostly cloudy evenings Sunday and Tuesday as these systems cross by. At this point, I don't expect much in the way of snowfall for our area -- they will mainly serve as a means to reinforce a weak lake effect machine over New York State and Northwestern PA. Flurries are definitely possible though when one of those disturbances passes through.

The next threat of any storm system looks to be around next FRIDAY. It's looking at this point like a rain event at this point because the trough that I just mentioned above is forecast to retreat slightly into Canada -- which will modify our airmass somewhat and bring temperatures closer to normal (45) or slightly above. Nothing massively warm by any stretch, but enough to probably melt a good bit of the snow for the burbs and the snow that's on the ground in Philadelphia.

EDIT -- 5 PM -- wanted to touch on something that will be worth watching. There is some potential with the second event next Thursday-Friday to be an ice event west of I-95. Alot of that has to do with the development of that storm, where it tracks, how strong it is, etc. It's 6-7 days out and something to keep an eye on -- and will do that in our Sunday post.

Enjoy your weekend!!