Start It Up Again...
Like the Eagles, who got trounced, some mets will feel the sting for forecasting high in this storm. Be kind to them as this was a TOUGH storm to forecast.
Now, though, time to move on to the next event. Friday appears to be the next storm in the line of this progressive and amplified pattern. The NAO index continues to be negative. Combined with a positive PNA, the set-up is on the board for another event.
What's the PNA you ask? The PNA is the Pacific North America Index. It's another measuring tool like the NAO in the atmosphere. If the PNA is positive and you have a negative NAO, most weatherpeople tend to believe that a storm can set up. And that's what the models are showing for Friday AM.
Time to whip out the pretty maps again and detail with each computer print-out thinks. These will be for Friday AM for all models using last night's computer data.
The NAM plops a low pressure system off of Wilmington, NC. Looks like a decent overrunning event up into Maryland, Southern PA, and DE. Since the NAM does not go past 84 hours, this is Friday AM. I would imagine Friday would look to be a snowy day with mixing and changing to rain at the shore.
The GFS has a low just east of Hilton Head, SC, a little south of the NAM position. Similiar setup but it looks like the best moisture and best everything with this event will be to the south (DC/MD/DE). We could get into a decent period of snow on Friday AM on the GFS, but the low ends up going 200 miles E of Atlantic City by Friday night.
The NOGAPS puts a low just SE of Wilmington, a little stronger than the GFS and NAM. Also ends up tracking this northeast but just to the east of the GFS position. Looks like a short duration event for Philadelphia.
The UKMET also does the same thing, but is a touch stronger than the first three models. This takes a slightly slower track but keeps with the GFS thinking (about 200 miles E of Atlantic City). The precip on this also looks to be a short-duration event based on these models.
The EURO, not shown, takes a low from near Jacksonville on Thursday night to about 250 miles SE of Cape Cod on Friday night. Looks like it would skirt us with an event.
With that said, given the model consensus in the 4 day timeframe with the track of the low it looks like we could get into a light to for some a moderate snow event, with the best chances of moderate being south and east of Philadelphia. I'm not going to bang the drum and say big snow by any stretch but given the pattern and given the dynamics set up I think there's a chance we can have a fun Friday in terms of snow.
Long term, The EURO is banging the drum for another storm in about a week and the GFS is hinting at a low off of Cape Cod. The pattern is condusive to some storminess -- the key is watching what goes on in the atmosphere!!!
Now, though, time to move on to the next event. Friday appears to be the next storm in the line of this progressive and amplified pattern. The NAO index continues to be negative. Combined with a positive PNA, the set-up is on the board for another event.
What's the PNA you ask? The PNA is the Pacific North America Index. It's another measuring tool like the NAO in the atmosphere. If the PNA is positive and you have a negative NAO, most weatherpeople tend to believe that a storm can set up. And that's what the models are showing for Friday AM.
Time to whip out the pretty maps again and detail with each computer print-out thinks. These will be for Friday AM for all models using last night's computer data.
The NAM plops a low pressure system off of Wilmington, NC. Looks like a decent overrunning event up into Maryland, Southern PA, and DE. Since the NAM does not go past 84 hours, this is Friday AM. I would imagine Friday would look to be a snowy day with mixing and changing to rain at the shore.
The GFS has a low just east of Hilton Head, SC, a little south of the NAM position. Similiar setup but it looks like the best moisture and best everything with this event will be to the south (DC/MD/DE). We could get into a decent period of snow on Friday AM on the GFS, but the low ends up going 200 miles E of Atlantic City by Friday night.
The NOGAPS puts a low just SE of Wilmington, a little stronger than the GFS and NAM. Also ends up tracking this northeast but just to the east of the GFS position. Looks like a short duration event for Philadelphia.
The UKMET also does the same thing, but is a touch stronger than the first three models. This takes a slightly slower track but keeps with the GFS thinking (about 200 miles E of Atlantic City). The precip on this also looks to be a short-duration event based on these models.
The EURO, not shown, takes a low from near Jacksonville on Thursday night to about 250 miles SE of Cape Cod on Friday night. Looks like it would skirt us with an event.
With that said, given the model consensus in the 4 day timeframe with the track of the low it looks like we could get into a light to for some a moderate snow event, with the best chances of moderate being south and east of Philadelphia. I'm not going to bang the drum and say big snow by any stretch but given the pattern and given the dynamics set up I think there's a chance we can have a fun Friday in terms of snow.
Long term, The EURO is banging the drum for another storm in about a week and the GFS is hinting at a low off of Cape Cod. The pattern is condusive to some storminess -- the key is watching what goes on in the atmosphere!!!
