Forecast Discussion: Free Lightning Show In January
Many in the Western Suburbs experienced a light show between 9:30 and 10:30 last night with the passage of the cold front...and some people, especially over the higher elevations in Chester, Berks, Lancaster, and Montgomery Counties experienced a brief period of thundersnow. For a detailed description of how thundersnow develops, check this link out. While most areas only got a quick .05" of rain or a trace of snow, still getting to experience thundersnow is a pretty rare experience. 1" hail occurred last night in the Philadelphia area and led to a Severe Thunderstorm Warning in South Jersey for a time as well.
So today, expect winds, some clouds at times, but the sun will be out from time to time as well. Temperatures will be between 35 and 42. If you live W of I-81 snow showers are possible at times due to the lack effect wringing itself out over the mountains -- but a snow shower or two could sneak down into the Pottsville area. Winds will continue to remain strong for the next 36 hours or so -- until Thursday night -- because the low pressure which is associated with last night's event will get hung up over Newfoundland and this blocking will help keep us dry for a few days -- expect temperature to begin to moderate on Friday (low 40's) and Saturday (mid to upper 40's) in advance of the next storm for Sunday night and into Monday.
At this point, the computer models are trending towards rain but there is some uncertainity about what happens with the low but there is more certainity that the event looks to be a rain event for Philadelphia -- with some snow possible up in the Poconos and perhaps the Lehigh Valley.
The GFS shows a low over N Central VA on Monday AM with a good rain event for the Philadelphia area starting overnight Sunday and into Monday. Snow does not look possible if you believe the GFS model.
The UK and Canadian (lower) both show a low redeveloping off of the coast -- which could result in some wrap-around for Jersey and possible some snow east of Philadelphia but it looks to be mostly rain for a good chunk of the area with these computer models.
Last Night's Weather Reports:
(Click the map to see the list of reports from Tuesday Night)
The Blowtorch Warmth of January
National Weather Service Report on how warm January has been in compared to historical past values.
So today, expect winds, some clouds at times, but the sun will be out from time to time as well. Temperatures will be between 35 and 42. If you live W of I-81 snow showers are possible at times due to the lack effect wringing itself out over the mountains -- but a snow shower or two could sneak down into the Pottsville area. Winds will continue to remain strong for the next 36 hours or so -- until Thursday night -- because the low pressure which is associated with last night's event will get hung up over Newfoundland and this blocking will help keep us dry for a few days -- expect temperature to begin to moderate on Friday (low 40's) and Saturday (mid to upper 40's) in advance of the next storm for Sunday night and into Monday.
At this point, the computer models are trending towards rain but there is some uncertainity about what happens with the low but there is more certainity that the event looks to be a rain event for Philadelphia -- with some snow possible up in the Poconos and perhaps the Lehigh Valley.
The GFS shows a low over N Central VA on Monday AM with a good rain event for the Philadelphia area starting overnight Sunday and into Monday. Snow does not look possible if you believe the GFS model.
The UK and Canadian (lower) both show a low redeveloping off of the coast -- which could result in some wrap-around for Jersey and possible some snow east of Philadelphia but it looks to be mostly rain for a good chunk of the area with these computer models.
Last Night's Weather Reports:
(Click the map to see the list of reports from Tuesday Night)
The Blowtorch Warmth of January
National Weather Service Report on how warm January has been in compared to historical past values.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT - UPDATED JANUARY STATISTICS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
250 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2006
...JANUARY 2006 ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE...
JANUARY 2006 CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MONTH, THROUGH THE 23RD, IS SOME 6 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SET SO FAR THIS MONTH. THE UPDATED TABLE
BELOW ARE THE STATISTICS FOR THIS MONTH (THROUGH THE 23RD) FOR OUR
MAIN CLIMATE SITES.
LOCATION JANUARY 1-23, 2006 AVERAGE TEMP. MONTHLY DEPARTURE
-------- -------------------------------- -----------------
PHILADELPHIA 40.9 DEGREES F +8.7 DEGREES F
ALLENTOWN 36.4 DEGREES F +8.9 DEGREES F
WILMINGTON 39.8 DEGREES F +8.0 DEGREES F
ATLANTIC CITY 40.6 DEGREES F +8.4 DEGREES F
MOUNT POCONO 31.3 DEGREES F +9.9 DEGREES F
READING 38.2 DEGREES F +9.1 DEGREES F
TRENTON 38.8 DEGREES F +6.0 DEGREES F
GEORGETOWN 44.1 DEGREES F +9.7 DEGREES F
THIS MONTH, SO FAR, ALL THE SITES ABOVE HAVE HAD ONLY 3 DAYS WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTION IS GEORGETOWN WITH 2 DAYS
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BELOW IS AN UPDATED LIST OF THE TOP 10 WARMEST JANUARY'S FOR OUR
FOUR MAIN CLIMATE SITES, AND WHERE JANUARY 2006 RANKS SO FAR. THIS
MONTH, SO FAR THROUGH THE 23RD, ALL FOUR SITES REMAIN IN THE TOP
10 FOR THEIR WARMEST JANUARY ON RECORD.
RANK PHILADELPHIA RANK ALLENTOWN RANK WILMINGTON
---- ------------ ---- --------- ---- ----------
1) 46.2 IN 1932 1) 40.6 IN 1932 1) 44.2 IN 1932
2) 43.2 IN 1950 2) 37.1 IN 1990 2) 43.3 IN 1913
3) 42.6 IN 1933 3) 36.8 IN 1950 3) 42.7 IN 1950
4) 42.2 IN 1913 4) 36.5 IN 1998 4) 41.0 IN 1937
5) 41.8 IN 1890 5) 36.4 IN 2006 5) 40.5 IN 1990
6) 41.4 IN 1937 6) 36.2 IN 1937 6) 40.4 IN 1933
7) 41.0 IN 1880 7) 35.6 IN 1933 7) 39.8 IN 2006
8) 41.0 IN 1998 8) 35.0 IN 1949 8) 39.8 IN 1998
9) 40.9 IN 2006 9) 34.3 IN 1995 9) 39.2 IN 1949
10) 40.3 IN 1990 10) 34.2 IN 2002 10) 38.2 IN 1916
RANK ATLANTIC CITY
---- -------------
1) 45.3 IN 1932
2) 44.3 IN 1950
3) 43.4 IN 1937
4) 42.5 IN 1933
5) 42.4 IN 1913
6) 41.7 IN 1949
7) 41.2 IN 1947
8) 40.6 IN 2006
9) 40.6 IN 1990
10) 40.5 IN 1953
SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS MONTH SO FAR, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ATLANTIC CITY. BELOW ARE THE SNOWFALL TOTALS THIS
MONTH, SO FAR, FOR OUR FOUR MAIN CLIMATE SITES, WITH THE NORMAL
AMOUNTS LISTED TO THE RIGHT.
JANUARY 2006 SNOWFALL NORMAL SNOWFALL FOR
LOCATION (THROUGH THE 23RD) JANUARY
-------- --------------------- -------------------
PHILADELPHIA 0.4 INCHES 6.4 INCHES
ALLENTOWN 1.0 INCHES 11.1 INCHES
WILMINGTON TRACE (INCHES) 7.5 INCHES
ATLANTIC CITY 4.7 INCHES 4.6 INCHES
TAKING A CLOSER COMPARISON REGARDING JANUARY SNOWFALL, SOME
PHILADELPHIA STATISTICS, FOR EXAMPLE, FOR THE LEAST SNOWIEST
JANUARY'S...
ONLY A TRACE OF SNOW FELL DURING THE ENTIRE MONTH IN 1913, 1933,
1934, 1973, AND 1995. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY 0.1 INCHES IN 1890 AND
1931, WITH 0.2 INCHES IN 1983. THEN, 0.5 INCHES IN 1919, 1924, AND
1998. PHILADELPHIA (FOR JANUARY 2006 SO FAR) CURRENTLY HAS A TOTAL
OF JUST 0.4 INCHES OF SNOW.
INTERESTING THAT ATLANTIC CITY HAS PICKED UP MORE SNOW THIS WINTER
SO FAR THAN PHILADELPHIA. THE LAST TIME ATLANTIC CITY HAD MORE SNOW
THAN PHILADELPHIA DURING A WINTER WAS 1997-1998 (A STRONG EL NINO
WINTER).
SNOWFALL THIS SEASON SO FAR...ATLANTIC CITY: 10.0 INCHES.
PHILADELPHIA: 7.4 INCHES.
1997-1998 TOTAL SNOWFALL......ATLANTIC CITY: 3.0 INCHES.
PHILADELPHIA: 0.8 INCHES.
