Forecast Discussion: Friday Sun and Fun But Tuesday Snow For Some
Welcome to Friday -- and welcome to a much less windy day in the Delaware Valley. Temperatures will be into the 38-43 range in the Delaware Valley, 35-39 in the Lehigh Valley, with plenty of sunshine. We are waking up this morning to temperatures in the upper teens and low 20's in the area so the sunshine today will certainly help to moderate things somewhat.
Expect temperatures on Saturday to be about 10-15 degrees warmer than today. High pressure is moving to the East Coast and the return west and west-southwest wind around the backside of the high will help to moderate temperatures quite a bit for Saturday, leading to 50's for most of the area.
Our next storm system will be entering the area on Sunday and the computer models are showing that this system will be weak (but not as weak as yesterday) but expect periods of light rain, especially around noon time as this system lifts out and across the area. The best rain chances look to be up to the north, closer to the low over NY State. Temperatures look to be 50-55 on Sunday here, slightly cooler in the Lehigh Valley.
As this first wave moves across, energy will slowly...and I mean slowly...transfer itself to the coast and develop a coastal low for Monday night and into Tuesday. Most models are in consensus about where the low pressure system will be but still differ on strength.
The snow potential that we talked about yesterday (with some backlash snows along the Jersey Coast) has increased and may, in this case, be further west and over the Lehigh Valley and Philadelphia suburbs as opposed to over the Jersey coast with rain from I-95 east perhaps.
For what it's worth, the GFS as of last night is progging about 3-4" of snow for Philadelphia for Tuesday, with 9-12" for the Lehigh Valley and Reading. Disclaimer: I'm not saying that's what is going to fall but keep in mind that yesterday we were looking at rain with this system in Philadelphia. It's not set in stone that snow will fall but it does look like there's a good shot at it for some. The GFS ensembles support the presence of a Newfoundland low and support the idea of a storm...which is good for snowhounds.
The UKIE bombs a low pressure system out over the Delmarva (inland) and then shoots its slowly northeast to a position inside 40 N /70 W (which is good for snow for NYC and PHL). I would expect coastal rain with inland snow with this run but it is a massive low pressure system...stronger than what the GFS thinks it's going to be.
The Canadian is weaker with the low (about the same strength as the 0z GFS) and tracks it NE. Looks like a snow inland with rain on the coast scenario.
What does this all mean for Monday and Tuesday? We could be seeing a very snowy start to our snowiest month on average, especially north and west of the city.
Expect temperatures on Saturday to be about 10-15 degrees warmer than today. High pressure is moving to the East Coast and the return west and west-southwest wind around the backside of the high will help to moderate temperatures quite a bit for Saturday, leading to 50's for most of the area.
Our next storm system will be entering the area on Sunday and the computer models are showing that this system will be weak (but not as weak as yesterday) but expect periods of light rain, especially around noon time as this system lifts out and across the area. The best rain chances look to be up to the north, closer to the low over NY State. Temperatures look to be 50-55 on Sunday here, slightly cooler in the Lehigh Valley.
As this first wave moves across, energy will slowly...and I mean slowly...transfer itself to the coast and develop a coastal low for Monday night and into Tuesday. Most models are in consensus about where the low pressure system will be but still differ on strength.
The snow potential that we talked about yesterday (with some backlash snows along the Jersey Coast) has increased and may, in this case, be further west and over the Lehigh Valley and Philadelphia suburbs as opposed to over the Jersey coast with rain from I-95 east perhaps.
For what it's worth, the GFS as of last night is progging about 3-4" of snow for Philadelphia for Tuesday, with 9-12" for the Lehigh Valley and Reading. Disclaimer: I'm not saying that's what is going to fall but keep in mind that yesterday we were looking at rain with this system in Philadelphia. It's not set in stone that snow will fall but it does look like there's a good shot at it for some. The GFS ensembles support the presence of a Newfoundland low and support the idea of a storm...which is good for snowhounds.
The UKIE bombs a low pressure system out over the Delmarva (inland) and then shoots its slowly northeast to a position inside 40 N /70 W (which is good for snow for NYC and PHL). I would expect coastal rain with inland snow with this run but it is a massive low pressure system...stronger than what the GFS thinks it's going to be.
The Canadian is weaker with the low (about the same strength as the 0z GFS) and tracks it NE. Looks like a snow inland with rain on the coast scenario.
What does this all mean for Monday and Tuesday? We could be seeing a very snowy start to our snowiest month on average, especially north and west of the city.
