Forecast Discussion: Getting Ready For Rain
So yesterday was windy and for some in the Lehigh Valley and western suburbs, a few flurries greeted you in the afternoon with a tremendously brisk wind from the NW.
Today will continue to feature a strong wind so periods of clouds and sun could be the norm again but winds should begin to slowly diminish as we move into the afternoon and should completely subside by early evening.
Temperatures tonight will drop a good bit with radiational cooling -- down into the teens north and in the Pine Barrens to low 20's Center City. The high builds in and across the area tomorrow AM and temperatures on Friday should be about five degrees warmer than today, with temperatures pushing near 50 on Saturday for most of the area.
As we move later into the weekend, uncertainity has now reared its ugly head with regards to the Monday storm. Yesterday we talked about one storm for Sunday night and Monday...now the 0z GFS run (last night's run) has two pieces of energy coming at us -- a weaker wave Sunday and now a stronger second wave on Monday night and into Tuesday. The GFS also takes the second wave, strengthens it off of the East Coast and throws snow back towards Philadelphia (giving Philadelphia and New Jersey 2-3" during the day Tuesday).
The UK develops a phased low (bomb) for Tuesday night, which if it played would result in snow for the East Coast. It also runs with the weaker wave of low pressure through the area Sunday night with a light rain for most. The idea of a coastal bomb does not seem likely since there is no blocking really in place (notice on the UK there is no high over Greenland (with the orange and reds) nor a low near Newfoundland (blues)) -- this low could intensify and shoot out to sea, however, and backlash Philadelphia and points east with some snow, but it's too early to say. I do expect, however, rain for most with this system with the POSSIBILITY of snow on the backend...whether it hits Sunday night and Monday or Monday night and Tuesday!
The Streak:
Since December 21st (36 days through yesterday), here are the winters with the most days of above normal temperatures in Philadelphia:
1932 34 of 36
1937 34 of 36
1890 32 of 36
1933 32 of 36
2006 31 of 36
1889 30 of 36
1908 30 of 36
1953 30 of 36
1998 30 of 36
1906 29 of 36
1995 29 of 36
Number of Days 5 Degrees above normal Dec 21st-Jan 25th
1933 30 of 36
1932 29 of 36
1890 28 of 36
2006 26 of 36
1937 24 of 36
1950 24 of 36
1934 23 of 36
1889 22 of 36
Number of Days 10 Degrees above normal Dec 21st-Jan 25th
1933 21 of 36
1950 20 of 36
1932 18 of 36
1890 17 of 36
1913 16 of 36
1937 16 of 36
1928 14 of 36
1972 13 of 36
1949 12 of 36
1995 12 of 36
2006 12 of 36
Number of Days 15 Degrees above normal Dec 21st-Jan 25th
1932 16 of 36
1933 11 of 36
1950 11 of 36
1937 9 of 36
1890 7 of 36
1876 6 of 36
1995 6 of 36
1998 6 of 36
1906 5 of 36
1913 5 of 36
1930 5 of 36
1983 5 of 36
1892 4 of 36
1907 4 of 36
1921 4 of 36
1928 4 of 36
1972 4 of 36
1973 4 of 36
1990 4 of 36
1991 4 of 36
1997 4 of 36
1999 4 of 36
2000 4 of 36
2005 4 of 36
2006 4 of 36
Courtesy Andy Rice, Weather Producer at CBS 3 (his list and his data crunching).
Today will continue to feature a strong wind so periods of clouds and sun could be the norm again but winds should begin to slowly diminish as we move into the afternoon and should completely subside by early evening.
Temperatures tonight will drop a good bit with radiational cooling -- down into the teens north and in the Pine Barrens to low 20's Center City. The high builds in and across the area tomorrow AM and temperatures on Friday should be about five degrees warmer than today, with temperatures pushing near 50 on Saturday for most of the area.
As we move later into the weekend, uncertainity has now reared its ugly head with regards to the Monday storm. Yesterday we talked about one storm for Sunday night and Monday...now the 0z GFS run (last night's run) has two pieces of energy coming at us -- a weaker wave Sunday and now a stronger second wave on Monday night and into Tuesday. The GFS also takes the second wave, strengthens it off of the East Coast and throws snow back towards Philadelphia (giving Philadelphia and New Jersey 2-3" during the day Tuesday).
The UK develops a phased low (bomb) for Tuesday night, which if it played would result in snow for the East Coast. It also runs with the weaker wave of low pressure through the area Sunday night with a light rain for most. The idea of a coastal bomb does not seem likely since there is no blocking really in place (notice on the UK there is no high over Greenland (with the orange and reds) nor a low near Newfoundland (blues)) -- this low could intensify and shoot out to sea, however, and backlash Philadelphia and points east with some snow, but it's too early to say. I do expect, however, rain for most with this system with the POSSIBILITY of snow on the backend...whether it hits Sunday night and Monday or Monday night and Tuesday!
The Streak:
Since December 21st (36 days through yesterday), here are the winters with the most days of above normal temperatures in Philadelphia:
1932 34 of 36
1937 34 of 36
1890 32 of 36
1933 32 of 36
2006 31 of 36
1889 30 of 36
1908 30 of 36
1953 30 of 36
1998 30 of 36
1906 29 of 36
1995 29 of 36
Number of Days 5 Degrees above normal Dec 21st-Jan 25th
1933 30 of 36
1932 29 of 36
1890 28 of 36
2006 26 of 36
1937 24 of 36
1950 24 of 36
1934 23 of 36
1889 22 of 36
Number of Days 10 Degrees above normal Dec 21st-Jan 25th
1933 21 of 36
1950 20 of 36
1932 18 of 36
1890 17 of 36
1913 16 of 36
1937 16 of 36
1928 14 of 36
1972 13 of 36
1949 12 of 36
1995 12 of 36
2006 12 of 36
Number of Days 15 Degrees above normal Dec 21st-Jan 25th
1932 16 of 36
1933 11 of 36
1950 11 of 36
1937 9 of 36
1890 7 of 36
1876 6 of 36
1995 6 of 36
1998 6 of 36
1906 5 of 36
1913 5 of 36
1930 5 of 36
1983 5 of 36
1892 4 of 36
1907 4 of 36
1921 4 of 36
1928 4 of 36
1972 4 of 36
1973 4 of 36
1990 4 of 36
1991 4 of 36
1997 4 of 36
1999 4 of 36
2000 4 of 36
2005 4 of 36
2006 4 of 36
Courtesy Andy Rice, Weather Producer at CBS 3 (his list and his data crunching).
