Forecast Discussion: Models Go Wild Again
The computer models that were gung-ho yesterday on big snow N & W and a changeover event in Philadelphia for Tuesday-Tuesday Night have completely fizzled on the idea for today. That does not mean that the storm will come raging and caging back, but I do think that the odds of it happening are not that high yet. Because we're in somewhat of a fast pattern aloft, small errors in one spot mean LARGE errors downstream on a computer model run. So, until we see some continuity from the GFS, NAM, and others, there is no real consensus on what happens. That's why when I saw the snowstorm on the models a couple of nights ago I did not get my hopes up...and we all remember storms looking good on paper over the years only to fizzle out and look like garbage (March 5th 2001). I will likely wait until either the late night run tonight or the morning sun on Sunday before making a call with regard to the Tuesday event.
So, now that we got that out of our system, let's get outside and enjoy today. Sunshine will dominate and temperatures for the last Saturday in January should end up being around 53-58 for most everyone. Can't say much about sunshine but enjoy the day! Clouds increase tonight before the next system moves to our north on Sunday. The best chances of good rain look to be N & W of I-81 while the rest of us look to be in a more scattered shower pattern. Rain should arrive here after midday. A rumble of thunder can't be ruled out as well for the event as well. Expect about 1/4" of rain for most of us tomorrow with temperatures between 52 and 57. It will almost feel spring-like this weekend with temperatures more representative of late March than late January.
As for the next system, the UK is still on board for a snowstorm and the bomb concept. It is essentially the only model of consequence right now that would drop snow on us. The EURO develops generally in that same time frame but looks to be too late to throw moisture into our area. The Canadian and the GFS show a similiar solution as well with a quick moving low that shoots out to the East.
UKIE
CANADIAN
EURO
It Could Happen Tomorrow: The Weather Channel has been running a show the past couple of Sunday nights speculating on hypothetical extreme storms such as a Category 3 Hurricane making landfall in New York City and a F5 tornado wiping out Dallas. Sunday night at 9:30 they will be showing Mount Rainier blowing its top and pummeling Seattle.
So, now that we got that out of our system, let's get outside and enjoy today. Sunshine will dominate and temperatures for the last Saturday in January should end up being around 53-58 for most everyone. Can't say much about sunshine but enjoy the day! Clouds increase tonight before the next system moves to our north on Sunday. The best chances of good rain look to be N & W of I-81 while the rest of us look to be in a more scattered shower pattern. Rain should arrive here after midday. A rumble of thunder can't be ruled out as well for the event as well. Expect about 1/4" of rain for most of us tomorrow with temperatures between 52 and 57. It will almost feel spring-like this weekend with temperatures more representative of late March than late January.
As for the next system, the UK is still on board for a snowstorm and the bomb concept. It is essentially the only model of consequence right now that would drop snow on us. The EURO develops generally in that same time frame but looks to be too late to throw moisture into our area. The Canadian and the GFS show a similiar solution as well with a quick moving low that shoots out to the East.
UKIE
CANADIAN
EUROIt Could Happen Tomorrow: The Weather Channel has been running a show the past couple of Sunday nights speculating on hypothetical extreme storms such as a Category 3 Hurricane making landfall in New York City and a F5 tornado wiping out Dallas. Sunday night at 9:30 they will be showing Mount Rainier blowing its top and pummeling Seattle.
