Sunday, February 12, 2006

Storm Verification: February 11-12 Event

As a good friend of mine in the meteorlogy business told me a few years ago, it's better to bust low than bust high. That means if you miss, you'd rather have more snow fall than forecast.

  • Here are Friday Night's Calls:


  • FORECASTER TIMING AMOUNTS FOR PHL
    National Wx Service N/A 5-8"
    CBS 3 3-6 PM 6-10"
    6 ABC 6-9 PM 6-12"
    NBC 10 2-5 PM 5-10"
    FOX 29 3-5 PM 9-14"
    Philadelphia Weather 4-7 PM 6-10"
    ACTUAL 3 PM 12"


    Here is my map for the area.



    I revised my call at 9 AM Saturday to the following. 6-10" is what I am holding myself accountable to but I did make a revision.



  • Complete List of Snowfall Accumulations For Philadelphia and Vicinity.


  • Why did more snow fall west of I-95? The track of the low was slightly closer to the coast. This made all the difference in the event and allowed the Shore Points to be at rain while I-95 and west got the heaviest snow. A difference of literally 30 miles is all that made the difference between Pottstown getting 10" and ending up with 16" or Ponoma getting 3" as opposed to 10". This is something very typical of East Coast storms. The low track is key.

    With all that said, who won this event for the forecast challenege?

    FOX 29 won for both timing and accumulation.

    While Channel 6 barely made the accumulation range, they were three hours off in timing. FOX made it comfortably in both ranges. NBC10 was off the most, missing by 2" on a five inch range.

  • Updated Forecast Challenge Results Are Available Here.


  • ALSO...

  • A look at the eye of the storm.


  • Some still images of the snow from local TV.


  • Pictures Taken Before, During, and After The Snow from Upper Montgomery County.


  • Animation of the snowstorm on radar. Jacob Carlin of Jersey City, NJ did this on Digital Atmosphere. Thanks for allowing us to host this, Jacob!