Review of Last Winter's Forecasts
While everyone in the local news room gathers around and pats their chief meteorologist on the back for a 'job well done' with the winter forecast from last winter, I thought it would be time to take a look back at what the 2005-2006 Winter was REALLY about and break things down to see who did well and who did poorly.
We'll break this down by TV station, with positives and negatives, and then a more thorough analysis. Keep in mind that these forecasts are mainly for Philadelphia, so snowfall totals will vary by location, with places N & W (and this winter, some to the east) getting more snow.
Click here for the original forecasts from the TV stations as summarized here back in December. Click here for my forecast, made back in October.
Now that we've seen the forecasts, the hard data, and everything is out there for the world to see, what is my impression of the forecasts?
Before I say who did the best, I factor two things into my grading: First, detail of the forecast. Are forecasts broken down by month or are they generalized forecasts? Do the winter forecasts give information about specifics (which month will be coldest & snowiest, etc.)? Second, the timing of the forecast. When was it issued? How far out from the start of December did this forecast get aired?
With those things out there, here are my winners and losers:
NBC 10 did well. Hurricane Schwarz understood the warm pattern and latched onto it. Despite their weaker performance in individual storm forecasts (at least, according to our Forecast Challenge), Hurricane was only 2.4" off on snow and went warm. He was a bit too warm in his February and March calls, but understood the pattern well. Grade: B+.
CBS 3 did pretty good as well. Paul Deanno, who made the forecast while still in Philadelphia and while Kathy Orr was out on maternity leave, correctly called February being the snowiest month. They bought a milder winter and called for a La Nina, which did happen (weak La Nina this winter). They overforecasted on snow by 4.6". Grade: B. The extra snow bumps them down 1/3 letter grade.
FOX 29 did quite well overall. Rob Guarino bought into a cold December with a mild January and February. Snowfall wise, they were accurate in calling for 20-25", missing by less than an inch. He was too cold in March. HOWEVER, Rob loses points by issuing his forecast on Monday, December 12th. This is almost half-way into December and nearly a month later than two other outlets issued their winter forecast. I'll give him an A- on the forecast itself but the lateness of the forecast knocks the grade down by one full mark. If this were high school, bringing in your homework late would result in a one grade deduction. B- for Rob.
My first winter forecast was not great but I did understand the pattern of cold/warm/cool. I underestimated the warmth and overestimated the length of the cold snap. I also overforecasted on snow by a good 10" -- and I was praying for that storm to hit in early March that never truly materialized so I could at least make a run at the 29.4" prediction. Grade: C- for calling pattern right but overdoing the cold and snow.
6 ABC called for 25-30" of snow and temperatures around 2 degrees below normal. They did correctly call for a pattern of extremes (we got the extreme warmth) but were colder and snowier than reality. Grade: C- for overdoing cold and snow but buying into extreme swings in temperature.
Now, it's on to Spring. For those of you who may care, I will be issuing a summer forecast in Early May. Feel free to email me and let me know your thoughts about the past winter and about the forecasts in general. Were the grades fair? I know each of us has our biases in who we watch for weather. I try to stay as neutral and fair as possible in my grading. My objective is to make sure that everyone calls it as correctly as possible. In the end, that makes everyone's forecasts better.
We'll break this down by TV station, with positives and negatives, and then a more thorough analysis. Keep in mind that these forecasts are mainly for Philadelphia, so snowfall totals will vary by location, with places N & W (and this winter, some to the east) getting more snow.
Click here for the original forecasts from the TV stations as summarized here back in December. Click here for my forecast, made back in October.
Winter 2005-2006 Hard Data
DEPARTURE FROM NORM
MONTH TEMPERATURE SNOWFALL
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
December 2005 -3.0 7.0"
January 2006 +8.4 0.4"
February 2006 +0.8 12.0"
March 2006 +1.5 (est) T
TOTAL +2.2 (est) 19.4"
FORECAST
FORECASTER IN GENERAL POSITIVE(S) NEGATIVE(S)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
CBS 3 *24" of snow Correct on Too much snow
*Above Norm Temps. temp pattern forecasted,
*La Nina Pattern & La Nina December was cold
*February coldest/ Feb. snowiest
snowiest
6 ABC *25-30" of snow Correct on Too much snow
*Two Degrees Below extreme pattern forecasted,
Normal Avg. Temps busted badly on
*"Winter of Extremes" temperatures
NBC 10 *12-17" of snow Very close on snow, Feb and March
*December coolest Got warmer trend were too warm;
*January +2, Feb +3 right
March +2
FOX 29 *20-25" of snow Did well on snow, Issued forecast
*December, March Called warm/cold 12 Days into
below normal; months right for December,
*January, Feb 3 out of 4 months March too cold
above normal
PHILA WX *29.4" of snow Temp. patterns were Too much snow &
*Colder than Normal reasonably called Too much cold
*Milder Mid-Winter well.
*Cooler Late Feb/Early
March
Now that we've seen the forecasts, the hard data, and everything is out there for the world to see, what is my impression of the forecasts?
Before I say who did the best, I factor two things into my grading: First, detail of the forecast. Are forecasts broken down by month or are they generalized forecasts? Do the winter forecasts give information about specifics (which month will be coldest & snowiest, etc.)? Second, the timing of the forecast. When was it issued? How far out from the start of December did this forecast get aired?
With those things out there, here are my winners and losers:
NBC 10 did well. Hurricane Schwarz understood the warm pattern and latched onto it. Despite their weaker performance in individual storm forecasts (at least, according to our Forecast Challenge), Hurricane was only 2.4" off on snow and went warm. He was a bit too warm in his February and March calls, but understood the pattern well. Grade: B+.
CBS 3 did pretty good as well. Paul Deanno, who made the forecast while still in Philadelphia and while Kathy Orr was out on maternity leave, correctly called February being the snowiest month. They bought a milder winter and called for a La Nina, which did happen (weak La Nina this winter). They overforecasted on snow by 4.6". Grade: B. The extra snow bumps them down 1/3 letter grade.
FOX 29 did quite well overall. Rob Guarino bought into a cold December with a mild January and February. Snowfall wise, they were accurate in calling for 20-25", missing by less than an inch. He was too cold in March. HOWEVER, Rob loses points by issuing his forecast on Monday, December 12th. This is almost half-way into December and nearly a month later than two other outlets issued their winter forecast. I'll give him an A- on the forecast itself but the lateness of the forecast knocks the grade down by one full mark. If this were high school, bringing in your homework late would result in a one grade deduction. B- for Rob.
My first winter forecast was not great but I did understand the pattern of cold/warm/cool. I underestimated the warmth and overestimated the length of the cold snap. I also overforecasted on snow by a good 10" -- and I was praying for that storm to hit in early March that never truly materialized so I could at least make a run at the 29.4" prediction. Grade: C- for calling pattern right but overdoing the cold and snow.
6 ABC called for 25-30" of snow and temperatures around 2 degrees below normal. They did correctly call for a pattern of extremes (we got the extreme warmth) but were colder and snowier than reality. Grade: C- for overdoing cold and snow but buying into extreme swings in temperature.
Now, it's on to Spring. For those of you who may care, I will be issuing a summer forecast in Early May. Feel free to email me and let me know your thoughts about the past winter and about the forecasts in general. Were the grades fair? I know each of us has our biases in who we watch for weather. I try to stay as neutral and fair as possible in my grading. My objective is to make sure that everyone calls it as correctly as possible. In the end, that makes everyone's forecasts better.
