Updated Discussion on Today's Event
Temperatures are quite warm aloft and a couple of wrinkles are being thrown into the storm for today. Temperatures are above freezing in Philadelphia and I believe that while there may be a period of ice at the onset due to evaporational cooling, the event in Philadelphia will mostly be liquid with no accumulation of snow. Roads should be wet in the city and places south and east.
While some snow is possible north of Philadelphia but thir morning it is looking much more like an ice and sleet event than snow. The chances of snow seem confined to the Poconos and Northwest Jersey.
Updated Accumulations:
Philadephia: 0
N & W Burbs: Less than 1" (mainly nothing snow-wise) with mix changing to rain early afternoon
Lehigh Valley: 1-3" with mix/possible change to rain
Poconos: 2-5" with mixing possible in places.
Central Jersey: Less than 1" with mix changing to rain early afternoon
New York City: 1-2" with mixing and possible change to rain.
8:40 AM Update
Why the bust for some??
The low is tracking farther north than forecasted. The models last night started showing this trend and it has continued more than forecasted. The warm layer (above freezing at the 850 mb level) is farther north than forecast by the computer models.
I hate forecasting ice and marginal forecasts but the NAM computer model had a pretty good handle on the northward nudge at the last minute. It seems to do a better job of handling the ice/sleet/rain type of events than the GFS, or at least it has this winter.
While some snow is possible north of Philadelphia but thir morning it is looking much more like an ice and sleet event than snow. The chances of snow seem confined to the Poconos and Northwest Jersey.
Updated Accumulations:
Philadephia: 0
N & W Burbs: Less than 1" (mainly nothing snow-wise) with mix changing to rain early afternoon
Lehigh Valley: 1-3" with mix/possible change to rain
Poconos: 2-5" with mixing possible in places.
Central Jersey: Less than 1" with mix changing to rain early afternoon
New York City: 1-2" with mixing and possible change to rain.
8:40 AM Update
Why the bust for some??
The low is tracking farther north than forecasted. The models last night started showing this trend and it has continued more than forecasted. The warm layer (above freezing at the 850 mb level) is farther north than forecast by the computer models.
I hate forecasting ice and marginal forecasts but the NAM computer model had a pretty good handle on the northward nudge at the last minute. It seems to do a better job of handling the ice/sleet/rain type of events than the GFS, or at least it has this winter.
