Forecast Discussion: Rainy Days and Mondays
To paraphrase Karen Carpenter "Rainy Days On Opening Day always gets me down."
I was hoping to bring baseball fans throughout the Delaware Valley better news about Monday but it looks as if we will be soggy for Opening Day. Low pressure will be tracking to our north and west but a wave will developing along the frontal boundary as it passes through the area later Monday PM and Monday night. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to move in from the Central US during the late morning hours Monday followed by the frontal boundary and its rain Monday night. The GFS, for what it's worth, is more aggressive in the precip moving in Monday while the NAM holds it back slightly and brings it through later in the afternoon.
NAM holds the precip back on Monday
...while the GFS is more aggressive in bringing it in Monday AM.
Just my luck -- it was nice last year for Opening Day and I couldn't expect two nice Opening Days in a row. Considering we need the rain, however, I can't complain too much.
I'm looking at about 1/3" of rain out of Monday's system -- certainly enough to help ease the dry spell that has engulfed the area.
Temperatures on Monday are highly dependent on how far north a warm front advances through our area -- and hence the temperatures forecasts for Monday are subject to huge margins of error. We will be in a southeast wind flow for most of the day here in Philadelphia -- which will keep it cloudy, damp, humid to even raw and will keep temperatures down somewhat. Depending on if we can break into the warm sector in the afternoon or not, some places could be warmer (or even cooler) than my thinking. I would not be surprised to see the Lehigh Valley stay in the 50's on Monday with Philadelphia popping above 60 later in the afternoon. In other words, temperature bust potential is huge.
After this front passes through Monday night we will cool down on the backside of the front. The higher peaks of the Poconos may see their rain end as a few wet snowflakes or a period of mixed precip as temperatures drop later Monday night.
Tuesday will not be a bad day here -- it will be mostly cloudy to the north but mostly sunny in Philadelphia and south. We should see temperatures bounce back into the mid 50's on a decent west wind. Tuesday night we will see temperatures drop to freezing or slightly below (say buh bye to any flowers you already planted unless you cover them up) before we rebound for the remainder of the week.
Friday PM Storm Threat
Temperatures will make another run at 70-75 on Friday before a front passes through the region Saturday AM (a chance of storms Friday PM) and cools things down somewhat (back to normal to slightly below) for early next week.
I was hoping to bring baseball fans throughout the Delaware Valley better news about Monday but it looks as if we will be soggy for Opening Day. Low pressure will be tracking to our north and west but a wave will developing along the frontal boundary as it passes through the area later Monday PM and Monday night. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to move in from the Central US during the late morning hours Monday followed by the frontal boundary and its rain Monday night. The GFS, for what it's worth, is more aggressive in the precip moving in Monday while the NAM holds it back slightly and brings it through later in the afternoon.
...while the GFS is more aggressive in bringing it in Monday AM.Just my luck -- it was nice last year for Opening Day and I couldn't expect two nice Opening Days in a row. Considering we need the rain, however, I can't complain too much.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY-TUESDAY
LOCATION SUN NIGHT MON NIGHT TUE
Philadelphia/I-95 67 47 64 40 57
N & W Burbs 66 46 60 37 54
Lehigh Valley 65 44 55 38 52
Jersey Shore 67 46 62 42 56
South Jersey 67 45 66 40 56
I'm looking at about 1/3" of rain out of Monday's system -- certainly enough to help ease the dry spell that has engulfed the area.
Temperatures on Monday are highly dependent on how far north a warm front advances through our area -- and hence the temperatures forecasts for Monday are subject to huge margins of error. We will be in a southeast wind flow for most of the day here in Philadelphia -- which will keep it cloudy, damp, humid to even raw and will keep temperatures down somewhat. Depending on if we can break into the warm sector in the afternoon or not, some places could be warmer (or even cooler) than my thinking. I would not be surprised to see the Lehigh Valley stay in the 50's on Monday with Philadelphia popping above 60 later in the afternoon. In other words, temperature bust potential is huge.
After this front passes through Monday night we will cool down on the backside of the front. The higher peaks of the Poconos may see their rain end as a few wet snowflakes or a period of mixed precip as temperatures drop later Monday night.
Tuesday will not be a bad day here -- it will be mostly cloudy to the north but mostly sunny in Philadelphia and south. We should see temperatures bounce back into the mid 50's on a decent west wind. Tuesday night we will see temperatures drop to freezing or slightly below (say buh bye to any flowers you already planted unless you cover them up) before we rebound for the remainder of the week.
Temperatures will make another run at 70-75 on Friday before a front passes through the region Saturday AM (a chance of storms Friday PM) and cools things down somewhat (back to normal to slightly below) for early next week.
