Tropical Weather: Dr. Gray Updated Forecast
Dr. William Gray issued his April forecast update yesterday. There are no changes to the hurricane forecast he put out last December. He is predicting 17 named tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes for 2006.
"The climate signals are such that this looks like it's going to be an active year," Gray said in a telephone interview today to Bloomberg.com from his office. "Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are very warm. That's a major factor."
As for probabilities of landfalls, here is what Dr. Gray is thinking:
USA: All hurricanes 98%; Cat 3+ 81%
Gulf Coast: All hurricanes 79%; Cat 3+ 47%
FL + E Coast: All hurricanes 89%; Cat 3+ 64%
Past analogs (comparison years) for Dr. Gray's forecast include 2003, 1999, 1996, and 1964. Each of those years were busy seasons for the Carolinas. Below are storms that hit in 2003, 1999, and 1996.
2003 -- Isabel
1999 -- Dennis
1999 -- Floyd
1996 -- Bertha
1996 -- Fran
While last year was primarily a Gulf Coast season and 2004 was primarily a Gulf and Florida season, 2006 may be shaping up to be an Atlantic and East Coast season. We discussed recent East Coast activity on a write-up on March 21st that discussed Accuweather's prediction of a Major Hurricane striking the Northeast US in the next few years.
"The climate signals are such that this looks like it's going to be an active year," Gray said in a telephone interview today to Bloomberg.com from his office. "Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are very warm. That's a major factor."
As for probabilities of landfalls, here is what Dr. Gray is thinking:
USA: All hurricanes 98%; Cat 3+ 81%
Gulf Coast: All hurricanes 79%; Cat 3+ 47%
FL + E Coast: All hurricanes 89%; Cat 3+ 64%
Past analogs (comparison years) for Dr. Gray's forecast include 2003, 1999, 1996, and 1964. Each of those years were busy seasons for the Carolinas. Below are storms that hit in 2003, 1999, and 1996.
2003 -- Isabel
1999 -- Dennis
1999 -- Floyd
1996 -- Bertha
1996 -- Fran
While last year was primarily a Gulf Coast season and 2004 was primarily a Gulf and Florida season, 2006 may be shaping up to be an Atlantic and East Coast season. We discussed recent East Coast activity on a write-up on March 21st that discussed Accuweather's prediction of a Major Hurricane striking the Northeast US in the next few years.
