Tuesday, May 30, 2006

Forecast Discussion: One Last Hot One For Now

Philadelphia/I-95 93 65 83 63 80
N & W Burbs 93 64 84 62 81
Lehigh Valley 92 64 84 61 81
Jersey Shore 79 63 75 64 76
South Jersey 89 64 81 62 80

Yesterday was the first day into the low 90's for most of the region and I do not see any reason why today will not be the second 90 degree day for most of the Delaware Valley. A weak backdoor front will be slipping down from the northeast and could set off a storm this afternoon, especially east of Philadelphia although an isolated storm cannot be ruled out throughout the region due to the very warm conditions that we'll get today.

It's not going to technically qualify for 'heat wave' status around here as temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler on Wednesday, thanks to that backdoor front. The front will switch winds around from the SW to the SE and the on-shore component off of 60 degree water will help to cool us off somewhat. I do think the temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will still be pretty warm compared to normal but at this point, I don't see anything that would suggest a 90 degree day in the cards either of those days.

Thursday will see clouds increasing as well with the approach of the frontal boundary that will put the kabosh on the heat dome for a few days around here. The dome will bump north over the Western US and reload over the Great Basin. We'll see a potentially decent storm event Thursday night if the severe parameters that are being kicked out by computer forecast guidance actually verify. We'll have to wait and see on that but it does look like Thursday night into Friday morning will feature some decent rains around here.

This system should clear the coast by Friday afternoon.

The early look at next weekend would suggest a chance at a scattered storm on Saturday evening but mostly a nice weekend with highs between 75 and 80. Another storm system may be moving in for the Sunday night and Monday time frame -- still a good ways out and we'll have plenty of time to watch and see what happens.