Cold Blast For Friday
A cold blast is moving south from Canada and will be in the area for about 24-36 hours. Temperatures on Thursday peaked at 54 degrees, a lot warmer than anyone was thinking a couple of short days ago (I'll give credit to Channel 6 for getting it right Thursday morning). Like I said, the cold blast is short in duration and really not THAT cold compared to normal (about ten degrees below normal tomorrow but with the winds it will feel colder).
Friday should see temperatures not get much above 35 degrees as winds pump in the cold air. A few flurries will be possible over the Poconos and down into the Lehigh Valley but for the rest of us a cold and partly cloudy day will be in the offing. Temperatures Friday night will likely be the coldest so far this cold season, with teens likely down into the far N & W burbs of Philadelphia with clear skies and diminishing winds.
Saturday, expect variably cloudy skies and calmer winds, allowing for temperatures to climb into the low 40's. Warmer temperatures are expected on Sunday, with a general warm pattern expected to last through the first half of next week before a storm system moves through the region around Wednesday or Thursday of next week. We could see temperatures shoot towards 60 on Wednesday in advance of the storm system. You can think the combination of a positive NAO, a zonal Pacific jet, and the warm air pumping north ahead of next week's storm for the warm days that we could see coming up.
NOAA released an article today talking about the strengthening El Nino in the Pacific. The most recent MEI data (which is one of the most popular measures of the Nino strength) is 1.293, which is eerily similar to 1994-1995's number of 1.244 (1994-1995 was one of my primary analogs for the upcoming winter as well). 1994-1995 wasn't the best of winters for snowhounds. However, a couple of good winters are further down the list: 1957-58 was the 5th best fit and featured two big storms in four weeks in February into March. The 1.293 number makes this El Nino a solid moderate Nino event and this is the second consecutive month where the MEI has been over +1.0.
There is some split discussion as to what will happen with El Nino from here on out. NOAA and several meteorologists believe that at least one to two more months of strengthening are likely before the Nino begins to wane. Others believe the weakening trend will be forthcoming sooner. The stronger El Nino gets, the greater the chances for a warm winter in the East but it does not necessarily always correlate that way. If it does wane in the next few weeks, the greater the chances are for colder weather to seep south in late January and early February (again, not always the case but climo suggests that more often than not). Much remains to be seen with regards to this winter!
