Investigation 93L Off of Florida's East Coast
Investigation 93L has been designated by the National Hurricane Center and is just off of the Florida East Coast. This area of low pressure at the surface is part of a tropical wave that is moving through the Bahamas towards Florida. This low pressure center developed over the last 12 hours and has shown signs of development. The only hindrance to the low pressure center at this point is an upper level low over the northern portions of Florida that is helping to impede the outflow of this low.
This was the system near the 'magenta' circle in my post on the tropics from yesterday and most computer model guidance suggests that a tropical cyclone will develop from this over the next few days. The question is how much interference the upper low provides. The slower it is to lift out or weaken the slower the development in this storm. However, if this upper low moves out quickly (and model guidance suggests this), then this storm has the ability to develop quickly over the Gulf of Mexico as conditions improve. Once the upper low moves out, the final destination in this feature assuming it develops will be determined by a trough digging across the Plains this weekend. A weaker, more progressive trough will not be able to pull this storm as far north. However, if this storm blows up in the Gulf of Mexico and deepens rapidly it will be more apt to feel the trough regardless of its strength. This system right now does not look to be impacting Philadelphia directly. It looks to be a Gulf of Mexico threat but we'll watch the trends.
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