Continued Prospects For Strong Storms Friday
As the late night model guidance is churning in there are signs that are unfolding of a strong storm event for Friday in parts of the region. The question at this point is where and when.The WRF (on the right hand side) is showing a strong area of low pressure that will lift northeast into Northwestern Ontario by Friday afternoon. A cold front will extend southeastward into the Great Lakes and through Eastern Ohio around 2 PM. Lines of storms are forecasted to develop out in front of the storm and, if the WRF is correct, move northeast ahead of the front.
According to the WRF and GFS (both models share this idea), there will be two areas of significant rainfall. The first will be over the northern Mid-Atlantic extending northward into New England. The second will be over the Carolinas. There will be a gap in significant rainfall in between but there could still be some decent shower and storm activity. This WRF model forecast is depicting such a cutoff in the northern area to run along and west of I-95, north of essentially I-70. If the WRF is correct, parts of Eastern and Central Pennsylvania could get over an inch of rain with lesser amounts on the east side of I-95.
The Storm Prediction Center has our region in a Slight Risk for severe weather for Friday. At this point, the best threats for severe weather look to be wind-related. Also, the Storm Prediction Center is throwing around possibilities for tornadic storms for the Northeast. I would think that this will be over Upstate New York and perhaps North-Central Pennsylvania if a tornadic threat does take place....but it's too early to say at this point. Regarding severe threat, we're looking at places most likely west of I-95. By the time the storms reach South and Central New Jersey there may not be sufficient instability to support severe weather but a strong storm or two is certainly possible Friday evening in your area.
Timing-wise, we're looking at Friday afternoon and evening for storm potential with the front clearing through Philadelphia an hour or two either side of midnight. Once the front clears the area, winds will shift around and the rain should stop.
Phillyweather.net will update you tomorrow with more on the severe threat.
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