Sunday, October 21, 2007

October 22nd, 2007 Forecast


A stunningly beautiful weekend in the Delaware Valley will yield another warm (dare I say hot for this time of the year) before we see some decent (and cooler) changes in the weather coming up starting as soon as Tuesday.

Tonight: Mild (compared to normal for this time of year) temperatures will continue with temperatures dropping only into the mid 50's in Philadelphia, but will drop into the 40's in the Pennsylvania suburbs and the New Jersey Pinelands. Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop off a fair bit most everywhere.
Monday: With high pressure off of the coast and to our south we will see southwest winds pump warm air into the region. Temperatures will approach 80 along I-95 with a good deal of sunshine in the forecast. It will likely be the last brush with 80 for the next few days (I'm not going to say for the season just yet) as we see a cool front beginning to press south and east for Tuesday.

Weekly Primer: The cool front I'm talking about will press south and east from Canada on Tuesday and will set off some showers and perhaps some storms in the afternoon. Cooler weather will set in but there is still some question about what will happen as computer model guidance is highly, highly inconsistent from offing to offing but the trend is to see cooler weather. A coastal low for Wednesday and Wednesday night which was forecasted in Saturday night's GFS computer run was replaced by a decent norther wind and clearing skies in the same time frame. If the timing of the cool front on Tuesday is slowed dramatically the odds for a coastal redevelopment increase as energy from a low pressure system forecast to develop in the Southwest US rides along the frontal boundary. If this front can clear our area and see a decent amount of push from northerly winds on the backside of the front we will see a much nicer Wednesday and Thursday. My forecasts for Wednesday and Thursday are relatively low confidence. Another shot of rain is possible on Friday as another low shoots by our region, setting up a weekend that could feature 'normal' temperatures.

Holiday Mania: Check out the Phillyweather.net Store where you can buy the Paul Kocin-Louis Uccellini collaborative effort on "Northeast Snowstorms"... a great gift I got last Christmas. There are other weather books, DVD's, and weather tools to check out.

Climate Update: Check out the monthly temperature, precipitation, and snowfall data that has been recently added to the climate section. Also check out the effects of the NAO on monthly temperature during winter, which segues nicely to the NAO discussion that was the Weather 101 post from this past weekend.

Santa Ana Mania: Strong offshore winds in California are setting the stage for some potentially disastrous wildfires over the coming days. KTTV-TV has been occasionally airing live coverage of the fires online. You can check out the San Diego Union-Tribune website for news from San Diego on the fires.