Today's Severe Weather Primer
The Storm Prediction Center has our region under a slight risk for severe weather today. A strong low is pulling northeast into Canada and a trailing cold front is moving eastward towards our region. Ahead of this front, unseasonably warm and humid conditions persist. A wave of low pressure is progressing up the frontal boundary and is spreading rainfall northward into the Carolinas early this morning and the main cold front is situated across the Great Lakes down through the south. Another main blob of moisture is located over the Deep South and is traveling the Gulf Coast.
Threat-wise, any storms that develop today could bring damaging winds and possibly a tornado. The Storm Prediction Center has a 30% chance for damaging wind gusts from any thunderstorm within 25 miles of any one point and a 5% chance for tornadoes within any point. The main fly in the ointment from any severe today will come from the blob of moisture in the Southeast near the Gulf Coast (see below).
Timing: Best threats for severe thunderstorms will take place between 4 and 8 PM ahead of the front and possibly again late in the evening as the front cross through the region, which should take place between 10 PM and 1 AM. The frontal crossing could produce a period of gusty winds and squall-like rains that could drop some strong winds to the surface. The afternoon activity could bring lines of storms or scattered cells of storms.Technorati Tags:
