First Ideas On What Falls Sunday Night
This is a relatively low confidence forecast in terms of precipitation type for Sunday night with our coastal low that has been much talked about and dissected more often than any local 9th grader's science lab frog. With a complicated and complex scenario that has little consistency between computer guidance in terms of snowfall amounts. Feel free to read my past discussions that discuss the nuances with this storm, the not-so-great setup we're looking at, and you'll get the sense why I'm not confident about this storm being a big snow player for Philadelphia and why I think we will see mostly rain in the city itself from the storm. We could see some snow at the end of the game and could see a coating or half-inch accumulations to the city but we're looking at trying to squeeze blood from a turnip...not sure if the setup is going to break in our favor and to be honest given the variability in forecasts I saw on television this morning, I don't think they're very confident either in their forecasts.
North of the city is a different story, however, and the potential for a few inches of snow is on the table for Allentown, Trenton, New Brunswick, and possibly Reading. The snowiest potential exists for North Jersey, suburban New York City, and points north up into New England where they could get up to 6" if not more in those areas. The storm is going to be developing rapidly so the key to snow accumulations will be in where the development begins to take place and where we start to see heavier precipitation break out.
In any case, this is a low confidence forecast right now and I will be looking at later guidance as well as satellite and radar trends during the day today. Small shifts in track, development, and timing change the game for much of the region hence the low confidence. I will have a first call up later this evening for this storm.
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