Sound The Alarms
National Weather Service director Dr. Jack Hayes spoke to Parade Magazine in its most recent edition about hype, saying:
"I think meteorologists are sensitive to overhyping the weather and creating a lack of trust with the public. Whenever you’re in doubt, check with the National Weather Service. When we issue a weather warning, it means there’s a real threat, and it’s time to take cover."
This seems to be a fitting topic as last Friday the Philadelphia School District received criticism regarding their handling of having school that day.
"There was more snow that fell than anybody had anticipated in any forecast," said Fred Farlino from the Philadelphia School District during a hastily assembled news conference on Friday afternoon to address criticism about the district's decision to not only open up shop on Friday but to close school at noon.
"It came down all of the sudden," said Farlino. "No one expected that, no one said that was occurring. Two large city agencies have access to weather reports and nothing prior to 5 a.m. indicated we would have that kind of onslaught of snow."
National Weather Service forecasts that were made Thursday night indicated a two to four inch snowfall for Philadelphia for Friday before a changeover to freezing rain and eventually rain. Other forecasts in the region called for one to three inches of snow before the changeover was to take place. While a winter weather advisory was initially issued for Philadelphia, the advisory was upgraded at 8 AM to a Winter Storm Warning because the northern parts of the city were receiving heavier-than-expected snowfall, which justified the upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning.
Forecasts for the Delaware Valley (myself included) were a mixed bag of successes in some areas and coming up short in others; however, the consensus from meteorologists was a prediction of a bad morning commute on Friday. That forecast turned out to be quite accurate, with the heaviest precipitation during the Friday snow event falling in the morning rush hour.
So, was there enough alarm issued regarding this most recent storm? Many times meteorologists and news outlets get accused of sounding too much alarm and playing the hype card too excessively when there's the remote possibility of flakes of snow falling as close as the Lehigh Valley. Was this an instance where the Philadelphia School District dropped the ball and made the wrong decision on Friday morning? Was this an instance where meteorologists made a bad forecast and underestimated the amount of snow that would fall from North Philadelphia into Bucks County? Or was this an instance of bad timing thanks to mother nature, as snow continued to develop on the back edge of the first thump of precipitation, which lead to the higher-than-forecast accumulations from North Philadelphia through Lower Bucks?
No forecast is 100% correct 100% of the time, especially when dealing with winter snowfall. Some areas are the recipient of a band of snow that may train across the same real estate, which can inflate accumulations above forecast. Other areas may see a dry slot and lower accumulations than expected. Friday's storm saw a bit of a training effect across the northern parts of the city, which allowed for those 5" accumulations across Bucks County and Northeast Philadelphia. Many times, the additional snow is seen as a welcome sight, especially to kids, teachers, and those who are work from home. However, in this instance, the additional snow ultimately led to some unwelcome fire being lobbed at the School District because of their decision.
"I think meteorologists are sensitive to overhyping the weather and creating a lack of trust with the public. Whenever you’re in doubt, check with the National Weather Service. When we issue a weather warning, it means there’s a real threat, and it’s time to take cover."
This seems to be a fitting topic as last Friday the Philadelphia School District received criticism regarding their handling of having school that day.
"There was more snow that fell than anybody had anticipated in any forecast," said Fred Farlino from the Philadelphia School District during a hastily assembled news conference on Friday afternoon to address criticism about the district's decision to not only open up shop on Friday but to close school at noon.
"It came down all of the sudden," said Farlino. "No one expected that, no one said that was occurring. Two large city agencies have access to weather reports and nothing prior to 5 a.m. indicated we would have that kind of onslaught of snow."
National Weather Service forecasts that were made Thursday night indicated a two to four inch snowfall for Philadelphia for Friday before a changeover to freezing rain and eventually rain. Other forecasts in the region called for one to three inches of snow before the changeover was to take place. While a winter weather advisory was initially issued for Philadelphia, the advisory was upgraded at 8 AM to a Winter Storm Warning because the northern parts of the city were receiving heavier-than-expected snowfall, which justified the upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning.
Forecasts for the Delaware Valley (myself included) were a mixed bag of successes in some areas and coming up short in others; however, the consensus from meteorologists was a prediction of a bad morning commute on Friday. That forecast turned out to be quite accurate, with the heaviest precipitation during the Friday snow event falling in the morning rush hour.
So, was there enough alarm issued regarding this most recent storm? Many times meteorologists and news outlets get accused of sounding too much alarm and playing the hype card too excessively when there's the remote possibility of flakes of snow falling as close as the Lehigh Valley. Was this an instance where the Philadelphia School District dropped the ball and made the wrong decision on Friday morning? Was this an instance where meteorologists made a bad forecast and underestimated the amount of snow that would fall from North Philadelphia into Bucks County? Or was this an instance of bad timing thanks to mother nature, as snow continued to develop on the back edge of the first thump of precipitation, which lead to the higher-than-forecast accumulations from North Philadelphia through Lower Bucks?
No forecast is 100% correct 100% of the time, especially when dealing with winter snowfall. Some areas are the recipient of a band of snow that may train across the same real estate, which can inflate accumulations above forecast. Other areas may see a dry slot and lower accumulations than expected. Friday's storm saw a bit of a training effect across the northern parts of the city, which allowed for those 5" accumulations across Bucks County and Northeast Philadelphia. Many times, the additional snow is seen as a welcome sight, especially to kids, teachers, and those who are work from home. However, in this instance, the additional snow ultimately led to some unwelcome fire being lobbed at the School District because of their decision.
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