March 7th, 2008 Forecast
Tonight: We should see an increase in cloud cover throughout the night as high pressure retreats off the coast. Most of the cloud cover tonight will be thin, high cirrus clouds. Temperatures tonight should drop into the low and mid 30's as skies will be clear enough for a time tonight to allow radiational cooling to take place.
Friday will be mainly cloudy with light rain moving in during the afternoon hours, likely between 3 and 6 across the region. We should see temperatures generally be in the 40's, with some low 50's across Delaware tomorrow. Winds will veer around to the east and begin to increase and we might see temperatures along the coastline drop off a bit in the afternoon thanks to ocean temperatures in the low 40's. The upcoming rain event will be heavy and some locations will see rainfall approaching three inches, if not more than three, by the time it's over Saturday evening. While model guidance does not vary much on who sees the heaviest rainfall -- it looks to bullseye within 30-40 miles of the I-95 corridor -- the question is just how high is the highest amounts going to be. The NAM is much more aggressive with rainfall and is kicking out 3-4" of rain along I-95, with the GFS holding to 2-2.5" of rain from the event.
Low track is critical with this storm as any shift in low pressure track will send the heaviest rain with this storm west or east accordingly. Right now, the low track on the GFS is from DC to Harrisburg to the NY/NJ/PA border. The NAM track is more convoluted it is runs two low pressure centers in tandem up from the Southeast, phases them near Lancaster, PA, and then sends the combined low northeast to near Oneonta, NY. The heaviest rain will fall to the east of the low track as the east side will have the Gulf/Atlantic moisture combination working together. Temperatures east of the low on on Saturday will also rise significantly, especially to the east and south of Philadelphia as temperatures in New Jersey and Delaware could rise over 60 degrees on Saturday before the low passes by to your west. Locations north and west of Philadelphia may hold in the low to mid 40's for much of this storm as cold air holds in place thanks to east winds.Once the low passes through temperatures will drop dramatically Saturday night and it is possible some of the rain ends as a period of wet snow across the Poconos and Northwest New Jersey...perhaps an inch or two of snow could fall in those places. If you're looking for big snows, head west. Areas from Columbus to Erie to Buffalo to Rochester could see over a foot of snow from this storm, with the GFS this afternoon hinting at 18-24" of new snowfall across those locations between now and Saturday night.
Temperatures will be chilly on Sunday with windy conditions in the morning and gradually diminishing winds in the afternoon. The next potential for precipitation looks to be on Wednesday with a clipper type low passing through the region. Some showers (maybe mixed with snow) are possible with this low as it scoots through.Tags:
