March 8th and 9th, 2008 Forecast
Flood Watch Late Tonight - Late Saturday Night
I-95 Corridor and Points North and West
Event Tracker With Radar And Satellite
I-95 Corridor and Points North and West
Event Tracker With Radar And Satellite
Our convoluted complex of rain and storms are about to move into the region. We will see two distinct batches of precipitation with a lull in the middle of the slices of rain. Rainfall will be moving in over the next couple of hours and should vary in intensity throughout the night.The storm will be two distinct waves of low pressure. The first will ride up the coastal plain in advance of the second storm and is responsible for tonight's rain and last night's mesolow in the Gulf of Mexico. The second low will travel a little more slowly and cross the region tomorrow, intensifying as it travels northeast.
Tonight's rainfall will range in the 0.75"-1.25" range, with the GFS' swath of heaviest rain west of I-95 and the NAM's east of I-95. Temperatures tonight should drop into the upper 30's to low 40's north and west of Philadelphia, with mid and upper 40's from Philadelphia on south and east. Temperatures may rise overnight south and east of the city as the first low drags warmer air northward.
The first round of rain should taper to drizzle by early morning on Saturday (between 3 and 6 AM), leaving us a few hour break to shake the rain off before the second round comes barreling up our way with the second (and deeper in pressure) low. This low will bring the warm air that will sit in New Jersey and Delaware northwestward into Eastern Pennsylvania for a few hours and temperatures in the midday or early afternoon should jump into the 50's, or at least near 50 up in the Lehigh and Berks.The second round of rainfall should bring us another one-half to one inch of water. However, the track of the low will be critical as a more western track such as the GFS' track of Hagerstown to Williamsport to Oneonta with the second storm would drag more unstable air farther inland, increasing the potential for a line of thunderstorms to fire up along or ahead of the cold front. The GFS times this line of storms for between 11 and 3 PM in the region and is faster than the NAM's track. The NAM track is from DC to Baltimore to Scranton over the same six hour period and the line of storms with the NAM's cold front is less pronounced (we see more showery type precipitation but some showers in the NAM version will be heavy). Putting all of this together, expect occasional rain, with a thunderstorm threat for I-95 and points east around midday or in the early afternoon.
Rainfall for both waves of the storm should bring between 1.25" and 2.50" to the region, which would result in flooding problems in several places, including the Lehigh Valley, Poconos, and Bucks.
Once the front passes through, temperatures will fall sharply Saturday evening, with a 30 to 35 degree temperature drop likely as cold air funnels into the region on the strength of 20 to 30 mph winds. Temperatures on Sunday morning should be in the mid and upper 20's across the area. If the cold air rushes in quickly enough, parts of the Poconos could see a quick inch or two of snow at the tail end of the storm as the cold air rushes in before the precipitation ends. As of now, it looks like we will not see snowfall in Philadelphia tomorrow night.
Sunday's weather will be windy in the AM with diminishing winds in the PM. Skies should be mostly sunny but it will be chilly out with high temperatures in the upper 30's or low 40's.
Daylight Savings Time Tomorrow Night: Yeah, it's already here. The end of standard time for the winter season and the return of increased daylight in the afternoon hours. Sunsets go from 6 PM tomorrow night to 7 PM on Sunday night but sunrises go from 6:20 to 7:19 over the next couple of days. Don't forget to check your smoke detectors as well to make sure they work.Snow Star State: Denton, Texas received several inches of snow yesterday and it snowed as far south as College Station as the storm system that's going to impact us brought cold air deep into the heart of Texas yesterday. Yes, that means Denton has seen more snow than Philadelphia this winter...gotta love the cruel twist of fate La Nina brings us.
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