Spring 2008 Forecast
The story of the upcoming Spring for much of the country will be one of the battle between the ridge and the trough. As our Nina winter drifts into Spring we will see the battle lines drawn around the Southeast Ridge, that broad area of high pressure that has turned many of computer model snowstorm this winter into rainfall. The Southeast Ridge will continue to play the dominant factor in our weather, with it bringing us warm periods and bouts of stormy weather when it flexes its muscle.
In those times when colder weather does come in, and those bouts of cold will be frequent at first before we see things moderate later in Spring, the ridge will be beat down somewhat and the storm track will be to our south. It is in those times when the storm track is just to our south and we are just far enough under the influence of the trough that we could see some snowfall. As always, timing is the key to any March snowfalls and our best odds for significant snowfall are early in March.
My analogs for this Spring are drawn upon strong Ninas persisting into the Spring. Those four years are 1971, 1974, 1989, and 1999. I lean more heavily on 1989 and 1999 as analogs for this Spring, based in part on their warmer than normal winter weather and the strength of the Nina in both of those Springs. 1971 and 1974 were both very strong Ninas that are more intense than this year but they share in the fact that their Ninas developed in the prior year and continued into the Spring. The Nino/Nina factor begins to show less life in regards to temperatures as one moves into Spring but the month of March still holds onto some of the "same" type of pattern in regards of temperatures.
Going back to those four years here is how each month shaped up regarding temperatures.
Note the consensus on temperatures is the average of the four years. For April, there were two above and two below normal so the consensus would be "normal". The main trend, however, that you see is for a cooler than normal Spring through the region as a whole.
Measurable snowfall occurred in three of the four Spring data set years, with the average of the four years being 4.0". 1971 featured April snowfall on April 6th-7th (4.3" in a two day event). A two or three inch snowfall in March would not be out of the question at some point and it is possible we see a snow flurry/squall type event in April, like we did in 2006.
I added the high temperature spread for the four years just for the sake of showing you how our temperature swings, as they are in every Spring, will be sharp and severe at times. Each of the four years featured at least one day with a high over 70 in March (1989 went above 80 once) and two of the four had at least one 80 degree high in April (1974 went above 90 once). The theme in the first half of Spring, despite the general colder than normal thoughts I have, is that we will see some pretty wild swings of temperature around here.
Overall temperature forecast:
March: -1
April: +1
May: -1
1989 and 1999 were generally pretty close to normal in temperature overall as each month was no more than 1.1 degrees away from the 30 year normal. I don't expect a significant "warm" or "cold" signal to dominate the weather this Spring but I do think the March 1-April 15 period will be a more volatile period of weather than the latter half of Spring.
In those times when colder weather does come in, and those bouts of cold will be frequent at first before we see things moderate later in Spring, the ridge will be beat down somewhat and the storm track will be to our south. It is in those times when the storm track is just to our south and we are just far enough under the influence of the trough that we could see some snowfall. As always, timing is the key to any March snowfalls and our best odds for significant snowfall are early in March.
My analogs for this Spring are drawn upon strong Ninas persisting into the Spring. Those four years are 1971, 1974, 1989, and 1999. I lean more heavily on 1989 and 1999 as analogs for this Spring, based in part on their warmer than normal winter weather and the strength of the Nina in both of those Springs. 1971 and 1974 were both very strong Ninas that are more intense than this year but they share in the fact that their Ninas developed in the prior year and continued into the Spring. The Nino/Nina factor begins to show less life in regards to temperatures as one moves into Spring but the month of March still holds onto some of the "same" type of pattern in regards of temperatures.
Going back to those four years here is how each month shaped up regarding temperatures.
Note the consensus on temperatures is the average of the four years. For April, there were two above and two below normal so the consensus would be "normal". The main trend, however, that you see is for a cooler than normal Spring through the region as a whole.
Measurable snowfall occurred in three of the four Spring data set years, with the average of the four years being 4.0". 1971 featured April snowfall on April 6th-7th (4.3" in a two day event). A two or three inch snowfall in March would not be out of the question at some point and it is possible we see a snow flurry/squall type event in April, like we did in 2006.
I added the high temperature spread for the four years just for the sake of showing you how our temperature swings, as they are in every Spring, will be sharp and severe at times. Each of the four years featured at least one day with a high over 70 in March (1989 went above 80 once) and two of the four had at least one 80 degree high in April (1974 went above 90 once). The theme in the first half of Spring, despite the general colder than normal thoughts I have, is that we will see some pretty wild swings of temperature around here.Overall temperature forecast:
March: -1
April: +1
May: -1
1989 and 1999 were generally pretty close to normal in temperature overall as each month was no more than 1.1 degrees away from the 30 year normal. I don't expect a significant "warm" or "cold" signal to dominate the weather this Spring but I do think the March 1-April 15 period will be a more volatile period of weather than the latter half of Spring.
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