Computer Model Guidance Busting On Precipitation
After looking at computer model predictions for anywhere from two to over four inches of rain for parts of the region with the current frontal boundary situation we are seeing a real turn for the dry in model guidance today.
The NAM model, for instance, which had given Philadelphia 3.43" of rain in yesterday's noontime run between Thursday afternoon and Saturday night is now only giving Philadelphia just another 0.42" of rain through Sunday. The turn to the dry is caused in part by the front slipping offshore instead of getting hung up in our area thanks to modestly stronger high pressure that will nose down from the north and is also caused by stronger showers and storms continuing across the south. This is robbing the front of moisture in our region while parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid South are getting rained on.
While this turn to the drier is a good blessing...it certainly beats the dire forecasts of the NAM from 24 hours ago, a forecast I thought was too aggressive. With that said, we will still see unsettled conditions linger through the weekend before things dry out somewhat early next week.
The NAM model, for instance, which had given Philadelphia 3.43" of rain in yesterday's noontime run between Thursday afternoon and Saturday night is now only giving Philadelphia just another 0.42" of rain through Sunday. The turn to the dry is caused in part by the front slipping offshore instead of getting hung up in our area thanks to modestly stronger high pressure that will nose down from the north and is also caused by stronger showers and storms continuing across the south. This is robbing the front of moisture in our region while parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid South are getting rained on.
While this turn to the drier is a good blessing...it certainly beats the dire forecasts of the NAM from 24 hours ago, a forecast I thought was too aggressive. With that said, we will still see unsettled conditions linger through the weekend before things dry out somewhat early next week.
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