Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Temperature Challenge #7 Final Results

The results of Temperature Challenge #7 are in and Fox 29 has won their second straight challenge. This forecast challenge ran from Friday-Tuesday and was based on Thursday night's 4/5 PM forecasts.

First, the forecasts and actual temperatures for each day.

Since today is Day 5, forecasts are graded at one point per degree. Channel 6 was off by one degree and took third as CBS 3 took second place.
One of the more unique aspects of this Temperature Challenge is the wide range of errors over the course of the five days. Thanks to the busted forecasts on the upper level low back on Sunday, plus the warmer temperatures we got on Friday and Saturday, we saw some rather impressive point totals racked up over the course of the five days. No perfect scores were secured over the five days of the contest and only two of the 25 possible forecasts were off by just one degree, Fox 29's Friday call and Channel 6's Tuesday call.
Later this week, I will take a look at the seven temperature challenges to date and compare the forecast accuracy over the seven days to see how everyone has stacked up over time in terms of accuracy. While it's not as wide-ranging in scope as the study outlined in the New York Times it does provide insight into how Philadelphia forecasters fare.