Gustav Rapidly Intensifies Today
Tropical Storm Gustav rapidly intensified from a strong disturbance that was tracking through the Caribbean over the past couple of days. Gustav developed spiral bands of showers that rotated around the center of the storm and at 5 PM the storm had winds to 60 mph.Gustav is moving northwest as it is feeling the impact of an upper level trough in the atmosphere located to the north of the islands. As Gustav works northwest, it is moving away from the pull of the storm and in the next couple of days it should begin to turn back to the west.
The $64,000 question with Gustav is when does this westward shift take place. It's important because given the current trajectory of Gustav it would cross over Haiti and eastern Cuba over the next three days, dumping significant amounts of rain on the islands that just got slammed by Fay a week and a half ago. A more rapid turn to the west or west-northwest would place Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba in the crosshairs for impact from a Gustav that would take a trajectory over very warm oceanic water. Given that atmospheric conditions over the Western Caribbean will be suitable for intensifying, a more westward and less northwestward movement should result in a stronger storm as it will stay south of land and over the Caribbean.
You can follow along with Gustav with our Gustav Tracker.
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