The Call On Hanna
Hanna has 70 mph winds as of this afternoon and while intensification to a hurricane is certainly possible, it will not be a major hurricane at landfall nor will it be a hurricane across our latitude. This is a quasi-tropical storm that will bring some beneficial, if not heavy rains, to the region tonight and Saturday.
The HPC forecast suggests the possibility of four or five inches of rain in the region. While in isolated areas that is certainly possible I think since Hanna is a fast moving system the potential of widespread rainfall of that amount is a bit low. Still, however, two to four inches of rain is likely.
Hanna will bring gale-force (it's the same as tropical storm force) winds to areas south and east of 295 in New Jersey and south of 95 in Delaware. Wind gusts to at least 50 mph at the coastline should be expected as well.
As for timing, look for rain to be moving into Delaware and South Jersey by early evening, spreading from south to north overnight. There might be a lull in the rainfall overnight and early on Saturday before the motherload moves through with Hanna.
Some Frequently Asked Questions About Hanna:
(1) Will Hanna be a hurricane in our area?
No. It will either be a tropical storm or declared extropical, i.e. a non tropical low pressure center.
(2) How strong will the winds be?
Winds will gust to and over 50 mph at the coast, to over 40 mph across Southern Delaware and south/east of 295 and the New Jersey Turnpike, and to over 30 mph in Philadelphia. Given the setup with the storm, the strongest winds will be before the center of the low passes, with gradual slackening of wind Saturday night.
(3) How much rain for my backyard?
2-4" of rain looks likely across New Jersey, Southeast PA, Delaware, and the New York City area, with isolated higher amounts of rain across some areas in that corridor. 1-2" of rain will fall farther west along the I-81 corridor. There will probably be a sharp gradient in rainfall totals across Central Pennslyvania.
(4) Flooding possible?
It is possible there is some stream flooding and localized ponding of water in those low lying areas and roadways that typically get it.
(5) Any severe weather?
Unless Hanna takes a track more inland, the severe weather threat in our region should be limited. This looks like a heavy rain event for our region but the possibility exists for some wind damage and a very slight possibility for a tornado exists across Delaware and South Jersey, closer to the track of the low...but this possibility is quite low. Keep in mind that the greatest threat for tornadic activity is in the right-front quadrant of the storm (north of the low and east of the low). Much of the region will be in the left-front quadrant (west of the track of the low).
(6) Where will Hanna make landfall?
It could be near the North Carolina/South Carolina border, although given the angle of the coastline a slight shift left or right will change the landfall location a fair bit.
(7) How will the event break down?
Tonight: Occasional showers will spread in from south to north overnight, reaching Philadelphia before 11 PM and the north and west burbs around midnight.
Saturday AM: Showers will continue off and on through the morning with a steadily increasing wind from the east and southeast in advance of Hanna under mainly cloudy skies.
Saturday, Noon-Evening: Rain will move in from the south with the main circulation of Hanna and rain will become heavy at times through the afternoon. Winds will pick up from the east and gust to tropical storm force from Philadelphia on east. The worst of the storm in Philadelphia will likely be between 3 and 9 PM, later north and earlier south. A few rumbles of thunder are possible and it is possible there is an isolated tornado in Delaware or South Jersey if Hanna's low pressure center tracks inland (any tornadoes would occur to the east of the low).
Saturday Night: Rain will end from south to north as Hanna's circulation center passes your location. Winds will switch around and slowly diminish through the evening to 10 mph by morning.
The HPC forecast suggests the possibility of four or five inches of rain in the region. While in isolated areas that is certainly possible I think since Hanna is a fast moving system the potential of widespread rainfall of that amount is a bit low. Still, however, two to four inches of rain is likely.
Hanna will bring gale-force (it's the same as tropical storm force) winds to areas south and east of 295 in New Jersey and south of 95 in Delaware. Wind gusts to at least 50 mph at the coastline should be expected as well.
As for timing, look for rain to be moving into Delaware and South Jersey by early evening, spreading from south to north overnight. There might be a lull in the rainfall overnight and early on Saturday before the motherload moves through with Hanna.
Some Frequently Asked Questions About Hanna:
(1) Will Hanna be a hurricane in our area?
No. It will either be a tropical storm or declared extropical, i.e. a non tropical low pressure center.
(2) How strong will the winds be?
Winds will gust to and over 50 mph at the coast, to over 40 mph across Southern Delaware and south/east of 295 and the New Jersey Turnpike, and to over 30 mph in Philadelphia. Given the setup with the storm, the strongest winds will be before the center of the low passes, with gradual slackening of wind Saturday night.
(3) How much rain for my backyard?
2-4" of rain looks likely across New Jersey, Southeast PA, Delaware, and the New York City area, with isolated higher amounts of rain across some areas in that corridor. 1-2" of rain will fall farther west along the I-81 corridor. There will probably be a sharp gradient in rainfall totals across Central Pennslyvania.
(4) Flooding possible?
It is possible there is some stream flooding and localized ponding of water in those low lying areas and roadways that typically get it.
(5) Any severe weather?
Unless Hanna takes a track more inland, the severe weather threat in our region should be limited. This looks like a heavy rain event for our region but the possibility exists for some wind damage and a very slight possibility for a tornado exists across Delaware and South Jersey, closer to the track of the low...but this possibility is quite low. Keep in mind that the greatest threat for tornadic activity is in the right-front quadrant of the storm (north of the low and east of the low). Much of the region will be in the left-front quadrant (west of the track of the low).
(6) Where will Hanna make landfall?
It could be near the North Carolina/South Carolina border, although given the angle of the coastline a slight shift left or right will change the landfall location a fair bit.
(7) How will the event break down?
Tonight: Occasional showers will spread in from south to north overnight, reaching Philadelphia before 11 PM and the north and west burbs around midnight.
Saturday AM: Showers will continue off and on through the morning with a steadily increasing wind from the east and southeast in advance of Hanna under mainly cloudy skies.
Saturday, Noon-Evening: Rain will move in from the south with the main circulation of Hanna and rain will become heavy at times through the afternoon. Winds will pick up from the east and gust to tropical storm force from Philadelphia on east. The worst of the storm in Philadelphia will likely be between 3 and 9 PM, later north and earlier south. A few rumbles of thunder are possible and it is possible there is an isolated tornado in Delaware or South Jersey if Hanna's low pressure center tracks inland (any tornadoes would occur to the east of the low).
Saturday Night: Rain will end from south to north as Hanna's circulation center passes your location. Winds will switch around and slowly diminish through the evening to 10 mph by morning.
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