Hanna Coming Up The Coast
This morning Tropical Storm Hanna is off of the East Coast of Florida and is accelerating towards the northwest. Hanna, with 65 mph winds, has not intensified any over the past day or two but is a notch or two more organized (and looks less subtropical compared to yesterday). Hanna will turn more to the north later today and will make landfall along the coast of the Carolinas tonight, possibly as a minimal hurricane...although there isn't much difference between a minimal hurricane and 65 or 70 mph tropical storm.If you look at the satellite, much of Hanna's storminess is on the north and WEST side of the storm, as opposed to the south and east. This is important as it comes up the coast as the vast majority of Hanna's rain and its strongest winds will be before the center of circulation passes through. Rain will die off as the center of the storm passes through and winds should begin to subside. It's important to note that with tropical systems that come up the East Coast you typically see heavier rainfall and stronger winds before the storm center passes -- this is partly due to the storm's evolutionary process into a non-tropical entity but in this case a weak frontal boundary to the west of us will add as a moisture conduit and will rain to pool along and to the east of the frontal boundary.
The track of the low center is going to be important as the east side of the storm has the slight potential for severe weather as the best shear and dynamics for weak tornadoes and gustier winds are in the "right front quadrant" of the storm (that is, ahead of the low pressure center and to the east of it). If Hanna ends up staying a bit west of forecast the storm may track just inland from the Atlantic through our region on a track through Southern Delaware and along the Garden State Parkway.
I'll have an updated forecast on Hanna this afternoon as I continue to watch the evolution on the storm.
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