White Thanksgiving? Maybe For Some Near Here
It may not be the most ideal setup for snow but at least one computer model is trying to give the snow starved something for next week. While the solution is odd in its development, it is something that at least bears watching.
A cold front will cross the region Monday night and early Tuesday, likely bringing some rain showers for us and maybe a mix or some snow showers over the Poconos. The GFS is progressive with the front and quickly shoves it off the coast as the upper trough pushing the cold front is pushed along in the upper level flow, despite the presence of a closed off low in the mid atmsophere. The closed low at the mid levels moves along pretty quickly to the northeast into Canada and avoids much of the Mid Atlantic. In other words, no snow potential and no coastal low.
The EURO has a different idea, however.
The EURO wants to take the front through Philadelphia and then slow it down. The upper trough that is responsible for the push of the cold front closes off into a mid level low pressure center and a surface low pressure center develops off the East Coast, moving slowly northeast. The EURO has shown a similar solution for the past couple of days, with today's noontime EURO closing the low off completely but more or less over the Mid Atlantic. This would bring some snow to areas north/west of I-95, possibly down to Philadelphia itself.
Is the GFS wrong or is the EURO out to lunch? The GFS is probably the most "north" with the mid level low compared to other guidance, with the EURO being the most south with the low, but the GFS is closer to the older surface low with the upper level feature (which may make its idea more plausible than the EURO but it could very well be wrong). The more southern solution on the EURO allows for the coastal low to develop along the cold front as the older surface low is farther north and removed from the upper level support.
Given we're still six days out there's plenty of time to watch the evolution of computer models in the coming days we see what happens.
A cold front will cross the region Monday night and early Tuesday, likely bringing some rain showers for us and maybe a mix or some snow showers over the Poconos. The GFS is progressive with the front and quickly shoves it off the coast as the upper trough pushing the cold front is pushed along in the upper level flow, despite the presence of a closed off low in the mid atmsophere. The closed low at the mid levels moves along pretty quickly to the northeast into Canada and avoids much of the Mid Atlantic. In other words, no snow potential and no coastal low.
The EURO has a different idea, however.
The EURO wants to take the front through Philadelphia and then slow it down. The upper trough that is responsible for the push of the cold front closes off into a mid level low pressure center and a surface low pressure center develops off the East Coast, moving slowly northeast. The EURO has shown a similar solution for the past couple of days, with today's noontime EURO closing the low off completely but more or less over the Mid Atlantic. This would bring some snow to areas north/west of I-95, possibly down to Philadelphia itself.Is the GFS wrong or is the EURO out to lunch? The GFS is probably the most "north" with the mid level low compared to other guidance, with the EURO being the most south with the low, but the GFS is closer to the older surface low with the upper level feature (which may make its idea more plausible than the EURO but it could very well be wrong). The more southern solution on the EURO allows for the coastal low to develop along the cold front as the older surface low is farther north and removed from the upper level support.
Given we're still six days out there's plenty of time to watch the evolution of computer models in the coming days we see what happens.
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