Saved By Zero?
I posted earlier about some rather cold air that is poised to come down the pike towards us later next week, with Friday potentially being one of the coldest days of the decade. Various computer models continue to suggest a cold snap and while these computers can't forecast snow to save their ram memory, they are pretty good about forecasting patterns. The GFS and EURO do agree on the scope of cold forthcoming between now and the end of the week.The temperature set on the left is all of the subzero and zero degree low temperatures in Philadelphia since 1874. There are only 45 such instances in modern era records of Philadelphia getting down to zero or below and it has not happened since 1994. The cold snap that's forthcoming, if we can get some snow cover down with weak systems poised to move through Tuesday and Thursday, could drop us at least into the single digits on Friday morning and potentially get us close to zero at the Airport if everything breaks right.
Let me stress that's "worst case" scenario on the cold but I do think flirting with 5-10 above for low across the immediate Philadelphia area is not out of the question.
In order for everything to break right we will need snowcover to make that happen and if neither Tuesday's or Thursday's system deliver on that, we'll have temperatures that will not get as cold. The best chances for subzero low temperatures will be to our north, especially over the Poconos and possibly the Lehigh Valley as well.
This cold pattern is brought to you by Yukon and Alaska as a polar flow will set up in the middle atmosphere and pump down cold air from the high arctic into the eastern half of North America. Fairbanks, Alaska, has had low temperatures of at least -40 for nine consecutive days, which has been the longest such streak of cold in Fairbanks in at least several years. Of course, that kind of cold air is not on the way but there is some cold forthcoming from Alaska.
It will arrive in baby steps, starting with Sunday and Monday's high temperatures in the 30's. We'll see an arctic boundary slice through the region Tuesday afternoon bringing some snow showers, with temperatures dropping into the 20's on Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday will feature a clipper low moving close to the region and this low will reinforce the cold routine over the Delaware Valley for the end of the upcoming week. It's possible that high temperatures on Friday do not reach 20 degrees, even in Philadelphia.
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