Fickle Forecast
Next week's forecast is incredibly fickle and incredibly tough to pin down as a mid level low pressure center (which is going to be responsible for Saturday's thunderstorm activity and Sunday's shower and storm chances) rambles off the coast. Computer guidance has remained split between two solutions, with rather marked differences in the resulting weather for each solution.
If you're tired of the current weather we have been stuck in for the past three days, the EURO's solution is not the one you want. This forecast has been consistent for several runs in a row and shows the mid level low cutting off near or along the East Coast, close enough to impact the Philadelphia region with clouds and perhaps showers on at least a couple of days for the beginning portions of next week. The potential is there for this mid level feature to hang out through Wednesday before it finally weakens and moves away. The resulting weather, if the EURO is right, will frankly stink as temperatures will probably be in the 70's for the first half of the week with at least a chance for some showers.
The other solution is much better if you want nice weather. The solution starts off with the low cutting off along the East Coast but it slowly rambles along to near Nova Scotia or Cape Cod (depending on the particular GFS run). This would keep the closed low far enough away from Philadelphia to have a real direct impact inland. The Shore might have some higher surf and rip current potential but the weather inland would feature improvement as the week progressed, with temperatures warming quickly above 85 by as early as Tuesday or Wednesday, perhaps making a run at 90 by late next week.
Of course, much could change and in the end we have a compromise forecast or something completely different than what the models are indicating. However, their consistency (especially on the EURO's end) has lead to a real split decision...and if you have been watching the news, some significant differences in those extended forecasts you are seeing on air. Right now, I'm leaning towards the EURO panning out as more accurate, if only because of persistence in patterns this summer. However, I do think we'll see gradual improvement in the weather as the week progresses. The question is how gradual the improvement and how long it takes for said improvement to get here.
If you're tired of the current weather we have been stuck in for the past three days, the EURO's solution is not the one you want. This forecast has been consistent for several runs in a row and shows the mid level low cutting off near or along the East Coast, close enough to impact the Philadelphia region with clouds and perhaps showers on at least a couple of days for the beginning portions of next week. The potential is there for this mid level feature to hang out through Wednesday before it finally weakens and moves away. The resulting weather, if the EURO is right, will frankly stink as temperatures will probably be in the 70's for the first half of the week with at least a chance for some showers.
The other solution is much better if you want nice weather. The solution starts off with the low cutting off along the East Coast but it slowly rambles along to near Nova Scotia or Cape Cod (depending on the particular GFS run). This would keep the closed low far enough away from Philadelphia to have a real direct impact inland. The Shore might have some higher surf and rip current potential but the weather inland would feature improvement as the week progressed, with temperatures warming quickly above 85 by as early as Tuesday or Wednesday, perhaps making a run at 90 by late next week.
Of course, much could change and in the end we have a compromise forecast or something completely different than what the models are indicating. However, their consistency (especially on the EURO's end) has lead to a real split decision...and if you have been watching the news, some significant differences in those extended forecasts you are seeing on air. Right now, I'm leaning towards the EURO panning out as more accurate, if only because of persistence in patterns this summer. However, I do think we'll see gradual improvement in the weather as the week progresses. The question is how gradual the improvement and how long it takes for said improvement to get here.
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