More Of The Same
The pattern of the last few weeks has been one of rinse and repeat...and in many respects has lead to some volatile mood swings in the temperature department as waffling stalled out fronts have lead to forecast havoc across the region.With weak upper level steering over the Northeast (with the jet stream generally to our north and not that strong), frontal boundaries that move southeast from Canada struggle to clear the Mid Atlantic as subtropical high pressure holds serve in the Atlantic and across the South Central US. While neither ridge of high pressure is overly strong for June, they are strong enough to stall fronts out as they move southeast. While the pattern around our region is somewhat zonal in nature, the western half of the country has been alternating between a ridge of high pressure and a trough (hence the Dakota snowfall) over the last few weeks.
These stalled fronts (like last week and the one that's going to impact us this week) seem to be the bane of a forecaster's existence as their waffling movements can lead to relatively large swings in temperature predictions with short notice as computer guidance struggles to adjust to the front's movement across our area. With another front setting up this week, forecasts may be prone to adjustments and huge tweaks as we move through the next five days, timing disturbances and their interaction with this frontal boundary across the area.
The good news is that long range computer guidance is suggesting an end of this pattern next week as the ridge across the South Central US expands and moves east. The question is how far east and northeast does it get. It will adjust things in our weather world although we may still have a threat for thunder if we get caught on the edge of the ridge (where thunderstorms develop and work around the north and northeast edges of the heat dome, common in the Summer). With that said, the pattern may become less dreary and potentially hot (90 degree weather?) as we work into the middle and latter portions of next week.
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