Rainy Night & Day Ahead
Rainfall is on the march across the region, spreading across Philadelphia late this afternoon and now impacting New Jersey. For the most part this evening, rainfall has been a nuisance across much of the region. However, heavier thunderstorm activity across Western Pennsylvania in association with low pressure and associated warm front is going to turn into a steadier shield of rainfall later tonight as it marches east.
Thursday's rain and thunderstorms could be heavy at times in spots, especially in the morning hours as the shield of storms over Western PA moves into our region. The potential does exist for some of those thunderstorms across the Delmarva tomorrow to be pretty rough as the air to our south is expected to be more unstable. We are still in a more stable airmass at the surface so rainfall is expected at first, with thunderstorms becoming increasingly likely on Thursday with the advance of the warm front into the area.
Model guidance continues to beef up the rainfall potential for the region, with totals now exceeding an inch across much of the region and exceeding two inches in much of the area on the wet-biased NAM. The NAM does a good job on picking up the potential for heavier rain but could be overdoing it. With that said, if the NAM's portrayal of heavy rains verifies the potential for some streams and roadways to flood would exist.
Rain and storms should gradually become more scattered Thursday afternoon, eventually departing altogether overnight.
Thursday's rain and thunderstorms could be heavy at times in spots, especially in the morning hours as the shield of storms over Western PA moves into our region. The potential does exist for some of those thunderstorms across the Delmarva tomorrow to be pretty rough as the air to our south is expected to be more unstable. We are still in a more stable airmass at the surface so rainfall is expected at first, with thunderstorms becoming increasingly likely on Thursday with the advance of the warm front into the area.
Model guidance continues to beef up the rainfall potential for the region, with totals now exceeding an inch across much of the region and exceeding two inches in much of the area on the wet-biased NAM. The NAM does a good job on picking up the potential for heavier rain but could be overdoing it. With that said, if the NAM's portrayal of heavy rains verifies the potential for some streams and roadways to flood would exist.
Rain and storms should gradually become more scattered Thursday afternoon, eventually departing altogether overnight.
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