Stormy Saturday & Hot Day(s) Next Midweek?
Saturday's potential for storms continues to hold serve for parts of the region and right now it looks like some of those storms could be strong if not severe. Although it's still three days away, the Storm Prediction Center is highlighting the western and central parts of Pennsylvania with a heightened potential for severe weather. Usually when that happens this far out most of that area gets a slight risk, with potential for a moderate risk when all is said and done.
The next frontal boundary to slice southeast on Saturday will work into an unstable atmosphere and will be supported by some pretty decent upper level dynamics as yet another upper level low rotates through Southeast Canada. Temperatures in model guidance have trended cooler in recent days and the threat for 90 may not be as great as it once was "on paper" but with southwest winds ahead of the front, a pretty decent warmup should take place ahead of the front and I still can see 90 in a couple of locations.
Storm timing on Saturday will all be dependent on when the front gets into our region. Right now, it's looking like a Saturday night frontal boundary passage, which could mean thunder threat could be the greatest in the later afternoon hours ahead of the front. That detail will still need to be fine tuned but I don't think an all day wash out should be expected at this point for Saturday...however, the afternoon hours should be watched for thunder development.
After the front passes (a chance for a couple of storms continues into Sunday unless the front clears the region quickly enough), we should see pleasant conditions for the start of next week. However, as another front works southeast from Canada we could see the potential for another run towards or above 90 for the middle of next week. The GFS and EURO both try to torch us for a day or maybe two (Wednesday and/or Thursday) before the next front passes through. Going further in the long range, the general agreement in the model guidance suggests a similar pattern to what we're in now, with an upper level ridge in the Western US and a bit of trough in the East that keeps us near or slightly below average.
It isn't completely a "year without a summer" but the lack of 90's is not totally a bad thing if you can't stand the heat.
The next frontal boundary to slice southeast on Saturday will work into an unstable atmosphere and will be supported by some pretty decent upper level dynamics as yet another upper level low rotates through Southeast Canada. Temperatures in model guidance have trended cooler in recent days and the threat for 90 may not be as great as it once was "on paper" but with southwest winds ahead of the front, a pretty decent warmup should take place ahead of the front and I still can see 90 in a couple of locations.
Storm timing on Saturday will all be dependent on when the front gets into our region. Right now, it's looking like a Saturday night frontal boundary passage, which could mean thunder threat could be the greatest in the later afternoon hours ahead of the front. That detail will still need to be fine tuned but I don't think an all day wash out should be expected at this point for Saturday...however, the afternoon hours should be watched for thunder development.
After the front passes (a chance for a couple of storms continues into Sunday unless the front clears the region quickly enough), we should see pleasant conditions for the start of next week. However, as another front works southeast from Canada we could see the potential for another run towards or above 90 for the middle of next week. The GFS and EURO both try to torch us for a day or maybe two (Wednesday and/or Thursday) before the next front passes through. Going further in the long range, the general agreement in the model guidance suggests a similar pattern to what we're in now, with an upper level ridge in the Western US and a bit of trough in the East that keeps us near or slightly below average.
It isn't completely a "year without a summer" but the lack of 90's is not totally a bad thing if you can't stand the heat.
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