Ida's Back To Tropical Storm Strength
Ida has reemerged over open water and has begun to reintensify, now back to a tropical storm. Ida has 45 mph winds this morning as it moves northward through the Caribbean Sea and towards the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Ida will strengthen a bit more as it is in a marginally favorable environment and it would not surprise me to see it get to 60-70 mph or so for top wind speed in the next 24-48 hours. While water temperatures are warm enough to support strengthening, Ida will eventually become impacted by upper level winds that will prevent it from organizing further.(Update, late Saturday AM: Ida has 60 mph winds at 10 AM ET and the storm is organizing well as shear is still low in the atmosphere. A hurricane is certainly possible in the Caribbean -- the question is how long intensification lasts before becoming a factor...which it should in the Gulf of Mexico)
As Ida pulls northward into the Gulf of Mexico, it will begin to interact with a frontal boundary that will move southeast into the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Ida will continue to feel the impacts of wind shear but also a less hospitable oceanic heat environment. This will prevent Ida from becoming a stronger storm. It does not look like Ida will be sucked quickly northeastward along the front to enhance rains up here in our area. While Ida will be drawn towards the Gulf Coast, the front stalls out in the northern Gulf and there is a chance that Ida may stall out as the front will ultimately line up east-to-west, with high pressure quickly building in to the north of the front over the Ohio Valley to prevent Ida from advancing northward further.
The computer models do bring rain into Georgia and Florida from Ida, with the system likely transitioning into a frontal low as opposed to a tropical entity due to the presence of the cold front. It's possible that the future non-tropical Ida does move into the Southeast for a time and stall out as well...figuring out how far north Ida ultimately gets before stalling out is still up in the air. However, the potential for more heavy rains in the Southeast does seem legit from this system in the middle parts of next week.
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