Thursday, May 19, 2011

Guess What's In The Forecast Today?

With today's weather, you get one guess and one guess only...

If you guessed "showers and storms" you would have guessed....correct. Yep, today brings us yet another chance of showers and storms as our pesty upper level low rumbles into the region. The low is already triggering showers and storms over Central Pennsylvania early this morning, with those showers and storms slowly moving northward and leading to flash flood warnings getting issued out near Harrisburg at 4 AM.

We should be able to coax a few more degrees out of the temperature today, if only because we'll have a few more breaks in cloud cover during the midday hours.   Some spots have patchy fog this morning to start your day -- that fog should lift after 8 AM and should give way to a variably cloudy sky.   Showers and storms will gradually break out towards midday and into this afternoon across the region, some of which will produce heavier rains and localized stream flooding can't be ruled out today in some spots.   The higher resolution computer modeling below shows the potential for the radar to light up after 2 PM this afternoon around the area.

There is no definitive severe risk in the area today but, like yesterday, the random spin-up tornado cannot be ruled out nor could some small hail or gusty winds since more unstable air resides around the region and a bit more sunshine is certainly possible before storms pop.

Storms, unlike yesterday, will be slower moving since the upper level low is nearby and we won't be dealing with spiral bands of thunderstorms working in off of the Atlantic.  These storms may move little, but generally to the north in their movement, later on today.   Not everyone will get wet today and some areas will see more rainfall than others later on today -- but it is a day much like the past couple in that thunderstorm chances abound.

More:   Current Weather