Saturday, October 29, 2011

Forecast for Sunday, October 30, 2011

North Central New Jersey, Northern New Jersey, North and Western Suburbs, South-Central Pennsylvania, Poconos, and the Lehigh Valley will experience widespread power outages with continuing wet snow breaking large tree branches. We already have more than 100,000 out in these areas. This is going to be an issue with cold temperatures and wind chills tonight.

In the next tier down, it has been a battle between rain, snow, and sleet. Heavier rounds of precipitation have been successful in this area in changing the precipitation over to frozen variety when they happen. We expect that as the lull fills in and the sun begins to set, the snow line to drop through this area…perhaps close to the NJ coastline…. eventually. There is some uncertainty as to how much the precipitation shield can fill in with the second batch sliding in from Central Pennsylvania into Maryland. The RPM model shows a pretty good fill in with snow into 10 p.m. The Nor’easter is expected to intensify this evening, so this system could fill in. A few inches (enough to break branches) is possible across Philadelphia, Western-Southern New Jersey, into Monmouth and Ocean Counties with slushy coatings elsewhere.

T-Storms/Thundersnow possible with intense, localized snow/sleet/rain rates. This will be a situation we will continue to monitor.

Winds will increase and switch directions this evening. 15 to 25 MPH sustained winds in the interior with gusts to 35 MPH are possible. In New Jersey and Delaware, 20 to 30 MPH sustained winds with gusts up to 50 MPH are possible, perhaps 55 MPH at the shore in Monmouth, Atlantic, and Ocean Counties.

The next best chance for measurable precipitation may come later next week. A few sprinkles are possible Monday Night or Tuesday.