Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Progressively Rainy Today

Damp showers and scattered drizzle are falling through the region this morning.   Temperatures aren't remarkably cool for this time of the year but it is a raw start to a damp and dreary day as temperatures range from the 40's north of the city to the lower 50's south of Philadelphia.  These temperatures will move little today as off and on showers continue to increase in coverage, becoming a steadier rain as the day progresses.
Computer modeling continues to suggest that this storm system moving through the region will bring two steadier and more significant rounds of rain -- the first, depicted above, times itself for later this afternoon through the evening hours and is in association with a surge of warm air aloft pushing northeast ahead of the cold front.  This morning's showers and drizzle will become a steadier rain after midday, lasting through much of the evening before the city enters a lull towards or just after midnight.  Rains will continue to the north, perhaps steady if not heavy at times as the higher rainfall totals with the storm track across the higher terrain to our north/west.  As the warm front pushes north, temperatures will rise late this evening and overnight, with temperatures into the 60's in Philadelphia by tomorrow morning's rush hour.

The second shot of heavier rainfall comes with the front on Wednesday morning, where a few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out as the front passes through.  Temperatures will drop back a bit after the front's passage tomorrow morning.

Rainfall totals between today and Wednesday could exceed two inches north and west of Route 202 across Pennsylvania, especially towards the Poconos and the I-81 corridor, with a general inch to inch and a half of rain expected along I-95, tapering to about an inch along the coast.   Localized stream rises in the more flood prone streams can't be ruled out but widespread flooding is not likely -- it's been quite dry the last few weeks so the region can handle one of these rain events with little difficulty.

Regarding temperatures, daytime temperatures hang out pretty much where they are now -- 40's north of the city, around 50 in the city, 50-55 south of town through 4 PM.  Temperatures will slowly climb this evening and then jump towards or just after Midnight as the warm front pushes north.  In the city, we're pointing to daytime highs of 52, with a final high occurring just before Midnight tonight in the upper 50's.

More:   Current Weather Page