Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Slouching Towards Wintery Type Temperatures

Today's warmth is likely the last of the real warm stuff we'll see for a while around here although mild temperatures aren't completely out of the picture...yet. After a few days of cooler weather, which will be much more typical of the first days of December, another warm up seems to be in the cards for the end of the upcoming weekend and the beginning of next week.   This warm up won't be as significant but upper 50's, perhaps 60 degrees, is possible on Sunday and/or Monday if everything breaks right.

From there, a storm system will track through the Great Lakes and work into Canada, pushing a cold front through on Monday and sending us on a more significant descent into winter-like temperatures.  It won't be a locked-and-loaded descent into winter but it will arguably be our first major cold shot since late October and should last for a few days.  Temperatures in the 30's and 40's for highs are possible Wednesday and Thursday of next week.  The Euro paints a scenario (below) where snow showers and flurries could accompany this cold shot next week as low pressure cranks off of the New England coastline in the wake of the cold front's crossing of the Northeast.

The GFS doesn't quite support that scenario but it does show temperatures as cold as what is advertised on the Euro.   Again, it's important to note that current modeling doesn't suggest a lock-in of the cold for weeks on end -- it looks like a relatively "quick" shot that lasts a few days.  However, it is a step in a significantly colder direction when held up in comparison to 70 degree weather and a sign that winter-like weather is finally in the cards.