Monday, December 05, 2011

Fog City This Morning

Fog has shrouded the region this morning, with visibility levels down to a quarter or half mile across much of South Jersey, Delaware, and the immediate Philadelphia region.  Dense fog advisories are out until 9 AM thanks to the Londonesque appearance outside in the region this morning.   Temperatures are in the 40's in many locations, with a few 30's to our west and northwest.  Milder air will continue to nudge in through the day today and the fog will gradually lift, leaving a mix of clouds and sun from the latter morning hours on through the duration of the day.

Assuming a mid morning sky brightening and also assuming we get some sunshine through the cloud cover around midday, temperatures should get into the lower 60's this afternoon.  We're pegging Philly for 63 but acknowledge we could be a bit "toasty" on our high temperature prediction if the fog and lower clouds hang tough through the day.  It is December after all and fog sometimes can have a pesky habit of hanging around longer than model projections suggest.   Winds will be light regardless, generally from the south at 5-10 mph.

Today generally marks the last "dry" day as showers will move close later tonight with the approach of the front, with a chance of showers off and on tomorrow and tomorrow night for a good chunk of the region.

Regarding the Wednesday night/Thursday system, the formerly consistent Euro (which had suggested little to no snow for the region) has trended a bit stronger and a bit northwest with its precipitation from the event.  It is projecting the potential for a coating to a couple of inches of snow (or a chilled rain) for a decent swath of the region (generally south/east of 222 and north/west of the immediate coastline), whereas the GFS has shown a solution very similar to what the Euro had been showing for a number of runs prior to last night (nothing of note in our area, some light rain at the coast that could mix or fall as snow across parts of Delaware and inland South Jersey).   Given the setup is rather complex and reliant on the strength of two other pieces of energy that ride the front prior to the third one (Wednesday night's wave) to paint a snowy scenario, there will likely be some more computer model "shifting" before some clear consensus occurs.   The best odds for much of anything to occur would be probably across Interior South Jersey and Delaware...and amounts would be modest on the whole.   We'll keep an eye on it.