Saturday, December 17, 2011

Forecast for Sunday, December 17, 2011

A weak front moving through our area this evening will continue to open the door to the cold air advection which will enhance the lake effect activity to our northwest. Some flurries or even a pesky snow shower could develop across the area at any time tonight or even on Sunday.

On Monday Night, a weak cold front will move into the region, stalling across our area on Tuesday. The computer models are indicating limited moisture at this time. However, there could be enough instability for a rain or snow shower Monday Night and more of the same on Tuesday.

The front will then retreat northward as a warm front on Tuesday Night. As warm air advection begins to develop, the moisture should increase in the area. The exact location as where this front will be placed is up for debate. However, locations north of this warm front could see a period of sleet and wet snow before the warmer air can scour out lingering cold air. It could even begin as rain with the rain transitioning to frozen precipitation before a transition back to liquid. This is especially true in the Lehigh Valley, Northern New Jersey, and the Poconos where warm fronts tend to have trouble pushing through during the winter season.

On Wednesday, a strong cold front is expected to move into the area. There could be a pretty big difference in temperature from north to south. Areas well into the warm sector have the chance at observing some thunderstorms…likely with little lightning and low-topped in nature. A strong jet aloft and decent momentum transfer may make strong to high winds a potential issue as the front passes through our area for a 2 to 4 hour window.

After this system, all attention will turn to some energy signaled to be around the area for Friday, December 23. There is low confidence in this part of our forecast and various solutions are being proposed. There is the potential for some sort of frozen precipitation, possibly mixed with rain or there is a chance this stays to our south.