Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Rainy Afternoon & Evening Ahead

A soaker is on tap for the region this afternoon and evening as low pressure tracks through the Appalachian Mountains and pulls a slug of rain northeast.  The rain as of 4 AM extends from Ohio down into the Carolinas and Georgia -- still a ways off but it should be entering the region around midday from the southwest.  The afternoon and evening provide the "opportunity" to add another inch to inch and a half of rain to our waterlogged total for 2011.  Computer modeling varies on who gets the heaviest rainfall but there's consensus that the region in general gets an inch.  The NAM has shifted a bit in its axis of heaviest rainfall, now bringing the 1.50"+ amounts to Jersey and Delaware while keeping Southeast Pennsylvania at about an inch.  It all depends on how the heavy rain shield that is progged to develop and move through later this afternoon hits...those who get the heavier rain shield will get the highest rainfall totals.   Localized flooding can't be ruled out and the flood watch remains in effect for Southeastern Pennsylvania and New Castle County.

That heavy rain shield should move through after 4 PM from southwest to northeast, accompanied by gusty winds that will exceed 30 miles per hour east of the city (Wind advisories at the Shore this afternoon and evening) and also by moderating temperatures later this afternoon.  The city and points east and south should get into the mid 50's this afternoon, potentially approaching 60 degrees in Delaware and South Jersey late in the day.  North and west may not fully get into the warm sector of the storm but will still be relatively mild for December standards -- highs near 50 in the outer burbs, with lower/middle 50's closer to the city.  Those highs are likely to occur late in the afternoon or into the early evening hours.

Rain should taper off after 8 PM from southwest to northeast as a cold front passes through, with winds shifting to the west and increasing to 20 mph sustained, gusts to 35-40 mph for everyone.    High temperatures on Wednesday will likely be "midnight highs" as temperatures will be in the process of dropping from our warmer temperatures of today, with Wednesday likely 15 degrees colder for many locations while accompanied by a biting breeze from the northwest.

More:  Current Weather Page